Assessing the Impact of Budget Momentum and Budget Expenditures on Russia's Real GDP

An econometric assessment of the impact on Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) of the real primary deficit (budget impulse) and real budget expenditures is discussed. The main characteristic of the national economy is the annual growth rate of the country's real GDP in 2006–2021. An econometric model of this characteristic is constructed. The explanatory variables of the model include the values of the growth rate of the main factors of production and, in particular, the real primary budget deficit (budget impulse) and the growth rate of real budget expenditures. The main results of the work are as follows. 1. The growth rate of Russia's real GDP is significantly positively influenced by both the real primary budget surplus (budget impulse – as defined by the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia) and the growth rate of real budget expenditures. 2. Adverse events such as the global financial crisis, Western sanctions, and the pandemic have a significant negative impact on the Russian economy, reducing the growth rate of real GDP by an average of 2% per year.