Indicative Planning Model of Regional Social Sector

The article suggests an approach of the development of modeling tools that allow assessing the consequences of the implementation of some specific indicative plan of the region’s social sphere development that determines the dynamics of indicators of the population living standards. The possibilities of the approach are illustrated by the example of the Transbaikal Territory, for which the prospects of the implementation of the Transbaikal Territory Development Strategy until 2030 are estimated. The initial state of the region social sphere is set on the basis of the assessment of the relevant industries capacities in customary measurement, the number and age structure of the population. That kind of assessment makes possible to determine the value of indicators of the provision of the population with social sector services in the base year. For a given long- term indicative plan, it is necessary to build up a forecast of the dynamics of the social sphere development within the given scenario of external conditions and assess the feasibility of the initial indicative plan. The mechanism of the formation of the expenditure part of the budget directed to the needs of social sectors is a decision- making algorithm based on forecasts of the incomes and needs of the industries in conjunction with the priority distribution procedures. The input parameters of such an algorithm are the applications of industries for budget financing in the structure of expenditures: labor costs, operating costs, capital expenditures. Numerical experiments while using the proposed model demonstrate the complex dependence of the final results not only on external conditions, but also on regional authorities’ regulatory influences (variants of the policy of leading indexation of tariffs and indexation of salaries in the social sphere). Analysis of the experiments results suggests that the proposed approach allows to solve not only the initial task of assessing the possibility of achieving the social services provision indicators’ planned values to the region’s population by a fixed moment. The model can also be used to solve the inverse problem – the task of determining the amount of resource provision (primarily financial) required implementing the indicative plan.