Strategic assessment of the compliance of open diffuse agglomerations with global, national and regional trends (Kemerovo region – Kuzbass agglomerations case study)

The objective of the study is to identify global, national, and regional trends that influence the creation and development of open diffuse agglomerations in the Kemerovo region – Kuzbass (North Kuzbass and South Kuzbass), and to assess their mutual compliance. The study is based on the general theory of strategy and strategizing methodology of the Russian scientific school developed by the Center for Strategic Research at the Institute of Mathematical Research of Complex Systems and the Economic and Financial Strategy Department at Moscow School of Economics at Lomonosov Moscow State University; the OTSW analysis method and economic and statistical tools for processing quantitative data are used. The author’s classification of trends associated with the development of open diffuse agglomerations has been developed. At the global level, strategic opportunities for them are associated with such trends as: changing the significance of distances between agglomeration participants under the influence of digital technologies, transition to vertical multi-level cities, development of creative and smart cities (affect the agglomeration as a whole); growth of rural tourism, eco-settlements, diversification of the rural economy (affect mainly rural municipal districts of the agglomeration); digitalization, differentiated urbanization, climate change and green transition (affect mainly cities). It is shown that digitalization and green transition trends create risks of increasing spatial inequality, as well as for providing regional strategies with resources. These risks can be countered based on the harmonious development of diffuse open agglomerations. At the national level, open diffuse agglomerations are affected by the dynamics of the Russian economy as a whole, a change in the approach to the spatial development of the country, changes in the spatial significance of individual agglomerations, and a decrease in the affordability of housing. In the Kemerovo region – Kuzbass, the trend of creating a legislative framework for agglomeration development is positive. There are trends that cause risks, in particular, an increase in internal spatial inequality, a decrease in the region’s share in the Russian economy, a weakening of competitiveness, and the potential of basic industries of specialization. The study revealed strategic opportunities in the external environment that should be used to determine the mission, vision, and strategic priorities of open diffuse agglomerations.