Cognitive modelling of economic development of industrial ecosystems

In the present conditions of economic development characterized by extreme uncertainty, the tasks of reindustrialization and import substitution require new approaches to analysis and decision-making. The article studies application of cognitive approach to modelling conditions and factors of efficient reindustrialization and import substitution of industrial ecosystems. On the basis of the cognitive map the authors analyze and visualize the relationships of the factors of reindustrialization and industrial policy. Cognitive maps are an effective tool for modelling complex socio-economic systems; they make it possible to identify the key relationships between the factors that influence their development. The authors define three scenarios of development of industrial ecosystems (innovation-and-breakthrough, modernization and inertia) and their conditions which vary by the degree of realization of six groups of factors (political, social, economic, innovative, industrial, managerial). The article highlights the importance of using tools of cognitive analysis for justifying strategic decisions and building an effective industrial policy to ensure reindustrialization and import advance in industrial ecosystems and increase sustainability and competitiveness of the national economics.