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General Budget Balance and Inflation in Türkiye: The ARDL Bounds Test Approach

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  • Semra Altıngöz Zarplı

    (Bilecik Seyh Edebali University)

Abstract

This study analyzes the long-run and short-run relationship between general budget balance and inflation in Türkiye with monthly data covering the period 2011:11-2023:05. In the study, the long-run and short-run relationship between the general budget balance and inflation is analyzed by ARDL analysis by including the dollar exchange rate and M3 money supply variables. According to the findings of the study, there is a statistically positive effect between budget deficit and inflation in the long run in Türkiye. In the short run, there is a negative effect between budget deficit and inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Semra Altıngöz Zarplı, 2023. "General Budget Balance and Inflation in Türkiye: The ARDL Bounds Test Approach," Journal of Finance Letters (Maliye ve Finans Yazıları), Maliye ve Finans Yazıları Yayıncılık Ltd. Şti., vol. 38(120), pages 263-276, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:acc:malfin:v:38:y:2023:i:120:p:263-276
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.1341727
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Budget balance; Inflation; ARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • A2 - General Economics and Teaching - - Economic Education and Teaching of Economics
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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