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The Determinants of Turkey’s Foreign Trade With Selected Countries in Relation With Real Exchange Rate: An Econometric Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Orhan Eren

    (Istanbul Commerce University)

  • Ali Osman Gürbüz

    (Istanbul Commerce University)

Abstract

In this study; the determinants of Turkey’s foreign trade with Russia and Germany is analyzed for 2004:01-2018:11 period. Stationarity of the series are investigated by Kapetanios unit root test and cointegration of the series is by Bounds Testing while long and short-run analyses are carried out by ARDL method. It is determined that increase in reel exchange rate raise exports of Turkey, Marshall-Lerner condition is valid in the foreign trade of Turkey with Russia and Germany, incline in the national income of partner countries increase export of Turkey and the incline in the national income of Turkey increases Turkey’s import. While rise in oil price increases Turkey’s exports to Russia, it decreases Turkey’s export to Germany. Population growth in partner countries increases exports of Turkey and population growth in Turkey raises exports of partner countries. 2008 global economic crisis decreased Turkey’s foreign trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Orhan Eren & Ali Osman Gürbüz, 2020. "The Determinants of Turkey’s Foreign Trade With Selected Countries in Relation With Real Exchange Rate: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Finance Letters (Maliye ve Finans Yazıları), Maliye ve Finans Yazıları Yayıncılık Ltd. Şti., vol. 35(114), pages 295-326, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:acc:malfin:v:35:y:2020:i:114:p:295-326
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.702783
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bilateral Foreign Trade; Real Exchange Rate; Analysis with Structural Breaks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • N70 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - General, International, or Comparative

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