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The Effects of Oil Prices and Real Effective Exchange Rate on Turkey’s Foreign Trade Balance: Ardl Boundary Test Approach

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  • Mehmet Ali Polat

Abstract

Changes in oil prices, holding an important place in import ofturkey, as an external factor and changes in real effective exchangerate as a relatively internal factor play an important role on country’sforeign trade balance.in this study, impacts of oil prices and real effective exchangerate on turkey’s foreign trade balance are analyzed using time seriesanalysis methods with structural break for 1989: m01-2018: m11period. Causality relations between series were analyzed by toda-yamamoto (1995) test; in this context, a causal relationship betweenreal effective exchange rate and economic conjuncture to foreign tradebalance was determined and there was no causal relationship betweenoil prices and foreign trade balance.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet Ali Polat, 2019. "The Effects of Oil Prices and Real Effective Exchange Rate on Turkey’s Foreign Trade Balance: Ardl Boundary Test Approach," Journal of Finance Letters (Maliye ve Finans Yazıları), Maliye ve Finans Yazıları Yayıncılık Ltd. Şti., vol. 34(112), pages 149-174, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:acc:malfin:v:34:y:2019:i:112:p:149-174
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.602961
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil Prices; Foreign Trade Balance; Real Effective Exchange Rate; Time Series Analysis with Structural Breaks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L95 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities
    • N75 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Asia including Middle East
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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