Determining factors of the default in processes of credit concession to micro and small businesses in the State of Minas Gerais

The objective of this paper is to identify and analyze the factors that lead to the default in the processes of financings granted by the BDMG in the GERAMINAS Program between June of 1997 and January of 2006. The data of the period were used, consisting of 25,616 processes pertaining to the 17,743 micro and small businesses. It is a quantitative study, which made use of the Model of Binary Logistic Regression to analyse the data. The results have shown the following determinants factors of the default: 1. the size of company (small x micro businesses); 2. market with low opportunities; 3. to be of the industrial sector, when compared with the commerce and of services; 4. company has been operational for a short time; 5. intermediate level of informatization and managed by partners possessing only high school diplomas; 6. value of the goods of the guarantor; 7. experience of the business partners; 8. use of the resources obtained in the financing as working capital; 9. value of the invoicing of the company. The majority of these findings are supported by the literature, except factors 5, 8 and 9, that oppose it, which menas a need for further studies. In terms of management, the findings of this study could be used to form policies or strategies for the institution under study, or similar institutions, in order to reduce or control their levels of default.