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Analysis of Stock Price Resilience in IT Services Companies

Author

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  • Yukari Shirota
  • Tamaki Sakura

Abstract

IT サービス企業の時価総額の伸びが著しい。COVID-19 の勃発によりデジタル需要が高まり，その特需により IT サービス企業の株価は大いに上昇した。しかし，2022年３月，米国連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）による連邦公開市場委員会（FOMC）においてゼロ金利が２年ぶりに解除されて以降，度々の利上げにより，IT サービス企業は株価を下げた。本稿では，時価総額の成長率の主たる要因を AI による回帰分析によって探求する。IT サービス企業はデジタルサービス，デジタル商品を販売するため，製造業とは主たる要因は大きく異なることが判明した。製造業においては，売上高成長率と在庫回転率などが主たる要因であるが，デジタル商品には在庫は必要ない。よって主たる成長要因は売上高成長率となる。回帰分析結果を SHAP によって解釈したところ，被説明変数の時価総額成長率と売上高成長率 SHAP 値の相関係数は0.92と非常に高いものであった。

Suggested Citation

  • Yukari Shirota & Tamaki Sakura, 2024. "Analysis of Stock Price Resilience in IT Services Companies," Gakushuin Economic Papers, Gakushuin University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 61(1), pages 25-35.
    • Handle: RePEc:abc:gakuep:61-1-2
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