IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/zewdip/22022.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Nowcasting the impact of COVID-19 on education, intergenerational mobility and earnings inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Neidhöfer, Guido
  • Lustig, Nora
  • Larroulet, Patricio

Abstract

Using microsimulations, we nowcast the impact of learning losses caused by COVID-19 on secondary school completion rates, intergenerational mobility of education, and long-run earnings inequality in eight countries Sub-Saharan Africa. On average, secondary school completion rates decrease by 12 percentage points overall and by 16 points for children with low-educated parents. Interestingly, in most countries the gender gap diminishes because for men the projected decrease in secondary school completion is higher. However, a small additional impact on girls' education due to the Covid-19 induced rise in teenage pregnancy is observed in some countries. Intergenerational mobility of education decreases from 1 to close to 50 percent, depending on the country. As a result of the heterogeneous reduction in average years of schooling for advantaged vs. disadvantaged children, earnings inequality could increase between one and four Gini points, depending on the assumptions.

Suggested Citation

  • Neidhöfer, Guido & Lustig, Nora & Larroulet, Patricio, 2022. "Nowcasting the impact of COVID-19 on education, intergenerational mobility and earnings inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-022, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:22022
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/261374/1/1810130417.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guido Neidhöfer & Nora Lustig & Mariano Tommasi, 2021. "Intergenerational transmission of lockdown consequences: prognosis of the longer-run persistence of COVID-19 in Latin America," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(3), pages 571-598, September.
    2. Neidhöfer, Guido & Serrano, Joaquín & Gasparini, Leonardo, 2018. "Educational inequality and intergenerational mobility in Latin America: A new database," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 329-349.
    3. Jérôme Adda, 2016. "Economic Activity and the Spread of Viral Diseases: Evidence from High Frequency Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(2), pages 891-941.
    4. David Jaume & Alexander Willén, 2019. "The Long-Run Effects of Teacher Strikes: Evidence from Argentina," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(4), pages 1097-1139.
    5. Ardington, Cally & Wills, Gabrielle & Kotze, Janeli, 2021. "COVID-19 learning losses: Early grade reading in South Africa," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    6. George Psacharopoulos & Harry Anthony Patrinos, 2018. "Returns to investment in education: a decennial review of the global literature," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(5), pages 445-458, September.
    7. M. Shahe Emran & William Greene & Forhad Shilpi, 2018. "When Measure Matters: Coresidency, Truncation Bias, and Intergenerational Mobility in Developing Countries," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 53(3), pages 589-607.
    8. Per Engzell & Arun Frey & Mark D. Verhagen, 2021. "Learning loss due to school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 118(17), pages 2022376118-, April.
    9. Jason M. Fletcher & Barbara L. Wolfe, 2009. "Education and Labor Market Consequences of Teenage Childbearing: Evidence Using the Timing of Pregnancy Outcomes and Community Fixed Effects," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 44(2).
    10. Paul Gertler & David I. Levine & Minnie Ames, 2004. "Schooling and Parental Death," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 211-225, February.
    11. João Pedro & Amer Hasan & Diana Goldemberg & Koen Geven & Syedah Aroob Iqbal, 2021. "Simulating the Potential Impacts of COVID-19 School Closures on Schooling and Learning Outcomes: A Set of Global Estimates [Tackling Inequity in Education during and after COVID-19]," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 36(1), pages 1-40.
    12. Angrist, Noam & de Barros, Andreas & Bhula, Radhika & Chakera, Shiraz & Cummiskey, Chris & DeStefano, Joseph & Floretta, John & Kaffenberger, Michelle & Piper, Benjamin & Stern, Jonathan, 2021. "Building back better to avert a learning catastrophe: Estimating learning loss from COVID-19 school shutdowns in Africa and facilitating short-term and long-term learning recovery," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guido Neidhöfer & Nora Lustig & Mariano Tommasi, 2021. "Intergenerational transmission of lockdown consequences: prognosis of the longer-run persistence of COVID-19 in Latin America," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(3), pages 571-598, September.
    2. Nora Lustig & Valentina Martinez Pabon & Guido Neidhöfer & Mariano Tommasi, 2020. "Short and Long-Run Distributional Impacts of COVID-19 in Latin America," Working Papers 2013, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    3. Bastian A. Betthäuser & Anders M. Bach-Mortensen & Per Engzell, 2023. "A systematic review and meta-analysis of the evidence on learning during the COVID-19 pandemic," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 7(3), pages 375-385, March.
    4. Monroy-Gómez-Franco, Luis & Vélez-Grajales, Roberto & López-Calva, Luis F., 2022. "The potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on learnings," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    5. Kóczán, Zs., 2024. "Lasting scars: The long-term effects of school closures on earnings," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    6. Marín Llanes, Lucas & Rodríguez Pico, Mariana & Maldonado, Darío & García, Sandra, 2023. "Learning inequality during Covid-19: Evidence from secondary schools in Colombia," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    7. Mustafa Uğraş & Erdal Zengin & Stamatis Papadakis & Michail Kalogiannakis, 2023. "Early Childhood Learning Losses during COVID-19: Systematic Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-29, April.
    8. Ardington, Cally & Wills, Gabrielle & Kotze, Janeli, 2021. "COVID-19 learning losses: Early grade reading in South Africa," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    9. Katharina Werner & Ludger Woessmann, 2021. "The Legacy of Covid-19 in Education," CESifo Working Paper Series 9358, CESifo.
    10. Boruchowicz, Cynthia & Parker, Susan W. & Robbins, Lindsay, 2022. "Time use of youth during a pandemic: Evidence from Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    11. Emran, M. Shahe & Jiang, Hanchen & Shilpi, Forhad, 2021. "Is Gender Destiny? Gender Bias and Intergenerational Educational Mobility in India," MPRA Paper 106793, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Noam Angrist & Peter Bergman & Moitshepi Matsheng, 2022. "Experimental evidence on learning using low-tech when school is out," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(7), pages 941-950, July.
    13. Harry Anthony Patrinos, 2022. "Learning loss and learning recovery," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 49(2), pages 183-188, June.
    14. repec:wbk:wbrwps:10259 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Jessica Bracco & Leonardo Gasparini & Mariana Marchionni & Guido Neidhöfer & Matías Ciaschi, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 on education in Latin America: long-run implications on poverty and inequality," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4544, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    16. Shahe Emran & Forhad Shilpi, 2019. "Economic approach to intergenerational mobility: Measures, methods, and challenges in developing countries," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-98, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    17. Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln & Dirk Krueger & André Kurmann & Etienne Lalé & Alexander Ludwig & Irina Popova, 2023. "The Fiscal and Welfare Effects of Policy Responses to the Covid-19 School Closures," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(1), pages 35-98, March.
    18. Nicola Fuchs-Schünde & Dirk Krueger & Alexander Ludwig & Irina Popova, 2022. "The Long-Term Distributional and Welfare Effects of Covid-19 School Closures," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(645), pages 1647-1683.
    19. Kuzmanic, Danilo & Valenzuela, Juan Pablo & Claro, Susana & Canales, Andrea & Cerda, Daniela & Undurraga, Eduardo A., 2023. "Socioeconomic disparities in the reopening of schools during the pandemic in Chile," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    20. Contreras, M. Ignacia & Duryea, Suzanne & Martínez A., Claudia, 2023. "The effect of the pandemic on the transition to tertiary education in Chile: A focus on students with disabilities," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    21. M. Niaz Asadullah & Anindita Bhattacharjee, 2022. "Digital Divide or Digital Provide? Technology, Time Use, and Learning Loss during COVID-19," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(10), pages 1934-1957, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; lockdowns; human capital; school closures; intergenerational persistence; education; inequality; Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I24 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Inequality
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:22022. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/zemande.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.