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A vague theory of choice over time

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Author Info
Paola Manzini (Queen Mary, University of London and IZA)
Marco Mariotti (Queen Mary, University of London)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

We propose a novel approach to modelling time preferences, based on a cognitive shortcoming of human decision makers: the perception of future events becomes increasingly `blurred' as the events are pushed further in time. Our model explains behavioural `anomalies' such as preference reversals and cyclical choice.

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File URL: http://129.3.20.41/eps/game/papers/0203/0203004.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Game Theory and Information with number 0203004.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
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Date of creation: 14 Mar 2002
Date of revision: 21 Jun 2002
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpga:0203004

Note: Type of Document - Acrobat PDF; prepared on IBM PC; figures: included
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: time preferences; hyperbolic discounting; preference reversal; cycles; intransitive preferences;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
A12 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
C70 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - General
D90 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth - - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Gilboa, Itzhak & Lapson, Robert, 1995. "Aggregation of Semiorders: Intransitive Indifference Makes a Difference," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 109-26, January.
    Other versions:
  2. Carrillo, Juan D & Mariotti, Thomas, 2000. "Strategic Ignorance as a Self-Disciplining Device," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 67(3), pages 529-44, July.
  3. Milton Friedman & L. J. Savage, 1948. "The Utility Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 279. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Laibson, David, 1997. "Golden Eggs and Hyperbolic Discounting," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(2), pages 443-77, May.
  5. Rubinstein, A., 2000. "Is it "Economics and Psychology"?: the Case of Hyperbolic Discounting," Papers 2000-21, Tel Aviv.
    Other versions:
  6. Ted O'Donoghue & Matthew Rabin, 1999. "Doing It Now or Later," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 103-124, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Thaler, Richard H & Shefrin, H M, 1981. "An Economic Theory of Self-Control," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(2), pages 392-406, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Aizpurua, J M, et al, 1993. " Similarity and Preferences in the Space of Simple Lotteries," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 289-97, June.
  9. Ted O'Donoghue & Matthew Rabin, 2001. "Choice And Procrastination," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(1), pages 121-160, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Faruk Gul & Wolfgang Pesendorfer, 2001. "Temptation and Self-Control," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1403-1435, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Fishburn, Peter C & Rubinstein, Ariel, 1982. "Time Preference," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 23(3), pages 677-94, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Read, Daniel, 2001. " Is Time-Discounting Hyperbolic or Subadditive?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 5-32, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Rubinstein, Ariel, 2001. "A theorist's view of experiments," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 615-628, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Ted O' Donoghue & Matthew Rabin, 2001. "Choice and Procrastination," Microeconomics 0012002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  15. Loewenstein, George & Prelec, Drazen, 1992. "Anomalies in Intertemporal Choice: Evidence and an Interpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 573-97, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Efe A Ok & Yusufcan Masatlioglu, 2003. "A General Theory of Time Preferences," Levine's Bibliography 234936000000000089, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  17. JosÊ RamÕn Uriarte, 1999. "Decision-making under risk: Editing procedures based on correlated similarities, and preference overdetermination," Review of Economic Design, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-12. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Philippe Jehiel & Andrew Lilico, 2006. "Smoking today or stopping tomorrow: A limited foresight perspective," Levine's Bibliography 506439000000000198, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  19. Tversky, Amos & Slovic, Paul & Kahneman, Daniel, 1990. "The Causes of Preference Reversal," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(1), pages 204-17, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ali al-Nowaihi & Sanjit Dhami, 2007. "Explaining the anomalies of the exponential discounted utility model," Discussion Papers in Economics 07/09, Department of Economics, University of Leicester. [Downloadable!]
  2. Efe A Ok & Yusufcan Masatlioglu, 2003. "A General Theory of Time Preferences," Levine's Bibliography 234936000000000089, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Paola Manzini & Marco Mariotti, 2004. "Rationalizing Boundedly Rational Choice," Microeconomics 0407005, EconWPA, revised 21 Jul 2005. [Downloadable!]
  4. Svetlana Boyarchenko & Sergei Levendorskii, 2005. "Discount factors ex post and ex ante, and discounted utility anomalies," Microeconomics 0510013, EconWPA, revised 17 Nov 2005. [Downloadable!]
  5. Manzini, Paola & Mariotti, Marco, 2004. "Rationalizing Boundedly Rational Choice: Sequential Rationalizability and Rational Shortlist Methods," IZA Discussion Papers 1239, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  6. Paola Manzini & Marco Mariotti, 2007. "Choice Over Time," IZA Discussion Papers 2993, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
    • Paola Manzini & Marco Mariotti, 2007. "Choice over Time," Working Papers 605, Queen Mary, University of London, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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