This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets - An Internet Experiment

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Mathias Drehmann (University of Bonn)
Joerg Oechssler (University of Bonn)
Andreas Roider (University of Bonn)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

We report results of an internet experiment designed to test the theory of informational cascades in financial markets. More than 6000 subjects, including a subsample of 267 consultants from an international consulting firm, participated in the experiment. As predicted by theory, we find that the presence of a flexible market price prevents herding. However, the presence of contrarian behavior, which can (partly) be rationalized via error models, distorts prices, and even after 20 decisions convergence to the fundamental value is rare. We also study the effects of transaction costs and the expectations of subjects with respect to future prices. Finally, we look at the behavior of various subsamples of our heterogeneous subject pool.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://129.3.20.41/eps/fin/papers/0210/0210005.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 0210005.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 17 Oct 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:0210005

Note: Type of Document -
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://129.3.20.41

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (EconWPA).

Related research
Keywords: herd behavior; informational cascades; contrarian investors; market efficiency; internet experiment;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C99 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Other
D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Rafael La Porta & Josef Lakonishok & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 1995. "Good News for Value Stocks: Further Evidence on Market Efficiency," NBER Working Papers 5311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Forsythe, Robert & Forrest Nelson & George R. Neumann & Jack Wright, 1992. "Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1142-61, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. John R. Graham, 1999. "Herding among Investment Newsletters: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 237-268, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Huck, Steffen & Oechssler, Jorg, 2000. "Informational cascades in the laboratory: Do they occur for the right reasons?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 661-671, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk, 2008. "Expectations and bubbles in asset pricing experiments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 116-133, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Angela A. Hung & Charles R. Plott, 2001. "Information Cascades: Replication and an Extension to Majority Rule and Conformity-Rewarding Institutions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1508-1520, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Antoni Bosch-Domènech & José G. Montalvo & Rosemarie Nagel & Albert Satorra, 2002. "One, Two, (Three), Infinity, ...: Newspaper and Lab Beauty-Contest Experiments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1687-1701, December. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. McKelvey Richard D. & Palfrey Thomas R., 1995. "Quantal Response Equilibria for Normal Form Games," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 6-38, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Sunder, S., 1992. "Experimental Asset Markets: A Survey," GSIA Working Papers 1992-19, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  10. Glosten, Lawrence R. & Milgrom, Paul R., 1985. "Bid, ask and transaction prices in a specialist market with heterogeneously informed traders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 71-100, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Banerjee, Abhijit V, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Ausubel, Lawrence M., 1990. "Partially-revealing rational expectations equilibrium in a competitive economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 93-126, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. David Lucking-Reiley, 1999. "Using field experiments to test equivalence between auction formats: Magic On the Internet," Framed Field Experiments 0055, The Field Experiments Website. [Downloadable!]
  14. Camerer, Colin F & Hogarth, Robin M, 1999. "The Effects of Financial Incentives in Experiments: A Review and Capital-Labor-Production Framework," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 19(1-3), pages 7-42, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Daniel, Kent & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2002. "Investor psychology in capital markets: evidence and policy implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 139-209, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Werner Güth & Carsten Schmidt & Matthias Sutter, 2003. "Fairness in the Mail and Opportunism in the Internet: A Newspaper Experiment on Ultimatum Bargaining," German Economic Review, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 243-265, 05. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Ben Greiner & H.-Arno Jacobsen & Carsten Schmidt, 2002. "The Virtual Laboratory Infrstructure for Online Economic Experiments," Papers on Strategic Interaction 2002-35, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Strategic Interaction Group. [Downloadable!]
  18. Dorothea K¸bler & Georg Weizs”cker, 2004. "Limited Depth of Reasoning and Failure of Cascade Formation in the Laboratory," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 71(2), pages 425-441, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Marco Cipriani & Antonio Guarino, 2008. "Herd Behavior and Contagion in Financial Markets," Contributions to Theoretical Economics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 8(1), pages 1390-1390. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Forsythe, Robert & Rietz, Thomas A. & Ross, Thomas W., 1999. "Wishes, expectations and actions: a survey on price formation in election stock markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 83-110, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Anderhub, Vital & Muller, Rudolf & Schmidt, Carsten, 2001. "Design and evaluation of an economic experiment via the Internet," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 227-247, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Welch, Ivo, 1992. " Sequential Sales, Learning, and Cascades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 695-732, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Anderson, Lisa R & Holt, Charles A, 1997. "Information Cascades in the Laboratory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 847-62, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Dow, James & Gorton, Gary, 1997. "Noise Trading, Delegated Portfolio Management, and Economic Welfare," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(5), pages 1024-50, October.
    Other versions:
  25. Ashiya, Masahiro & Doi, Takero, 2001. "Herd behavior of Japanese economists," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 343-346, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  26. Sunil Sharma & Sushil Bikhchandani, 2000. "herd Behavior in Financial Markets - A Review," IMF Working Papers 00/48, International Monetary Fund.
  27. Gary Charness & Ernan Haruvy & Doron Sonsino, . "Social Distance and Reciprocity: The Internet vs. the Laboratory," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series 10-01, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara. [Downloadable!]
  28. John Hey & Louise Allsopp, . "Two Experiments to Test a Model of Herd Behaviour," Discussion Papers 99/24, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  29. Avery, Christopher & Zemsky, Peter, 1998. "Multidimensional Uncertainty and Herd Behavior in Financial Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 724-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Shavit, Tal & Sonsino, Doron & Benzion, Uri, 2001. "A comparative study of lotteries-evaluation in class and on the Web," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 483-491, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Camerer, Colin F. & Hogarth, Robin M., 1999. "The Effects of Financial Incentives in Experiments: A Review and Capital-Labor-Production Framework," Working Papers 1059, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences. [Downloadable!]
  32. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1992. "The impact of institutional trading on stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-43, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  33. Charles R. Plott & Jorgen Wit & Winston C. Yang, 2003. "Parimutuel betting markets as information aggregation devices: experimental results," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 311-351, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  34. Markus Noth & Martin Weber, 2003. "Information Aggregation with Random Ordering: Cascades and Overconfidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(484), pages 166-189, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  35. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  36. Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2001. "Herd Behavior and Cascading in Capital Markets: A Review and Synthesis," MPRA Paper 5186, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  37. Kraemer, Carlo & Nöth, Markus & Weber, Martin, 2000. "Information Aggregation with Costly Information and Random Ordering: Experimental Evidence," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 00-35, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  38. Gary Charness & Ernan haruvy & Doron Sonsino, 2001. "Social Distance and Reciprocity: The Internet vs. the Laboratory," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series wp10-01, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara. [Downloadable!]
  39. Berg, Joyce E, et al, 1986. "Controlling Preferences for Lotteries on Units of Experimental Exchange," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 101(2), pages 281-306, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  40. Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1990. "Herd Behavior and Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 465-79, June.
    Other versions:
  41. Antoni Bosch-Domenech, 2002. "One, Two, (Three), Infinity: Newspaper and Lab Beauty-Contest Experiments," Artefactual Field Experiments 0010, The Field Experiments Website. [Downloadable!]
  42. D. Kübler & G. Weizsäcker, . "Limited depth of reasoning and failure of cascade formation in the laboratory," Sonderforschungsbereich 373 2001-3, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin.
  43. David Lucking-Reiley, 1999. "Using Field Experiments to Test Equivalence between Auction Formats: Magic on the Internet," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1063-1080, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  44. John D. Hey & Andrea Morone, 2004. "Do Markets Drive Out Lemmings-or Vice Versa?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71(284), pages 637-659, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? Apart from a small start up grant in the 1990's, RePEc has received no funding and lives on the help of volunteers.

This page was last updated on 2009-10-20.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.