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Economic development and population growth: an inverted-U shaped curve?

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Abstract

There has been a large debate on the relations between demography and economic development. Our paper discusses the possibility that there exists an inverted-U curve, similar in shape to Kuznets’s curve, between the growth rate of population and the growth rate of the per-capita GDP. The cross-country empirical analysis, carried out on over 90 countries in the period 1980-2010, seems to confirm the existence of this kind of curve. The main reasons behind this phenomenon are discussed. First, it is difficult to sustain a high economic growth either with a low (lower than 0.5%) or high (higher than 2-2.5%) growth rate of population. In the first case, an excessive ageing of population causes the well-known negative consequences. In the second case, the possibilities of large households of providing children with adequate nourishment, education and health are reduced. Moreover, without a perfect capital market, it is difficult to promote new firms and innovation unless adequate personal or family resources are available

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  • Valli Vittorio & Saccone Donatella, 2011. "Economic development and population growth: an inverted-U shaped curve?," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201105, University of Turin.
    • Handle: RePEc:uto:dipeco:201105
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    2. Hajamini, Mehdi, 2015. "The non-linear effect of population growth and linear effect of age structure on per capita income: A threshold dynamic panel structural model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 43-58.
    3. Coccia, Mario, 2014. "Driving forces of technological change: The relation between population growth and technological innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 52-65.
    4. Vittorio Valli, 2021. "Riflessioni sull'economia. Per uno sviluppo inclusivo e sostenibile (Reflections on political economy. For an inclusive and sustainable development)," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 74(296), pages 301-332.
    5. Vittorio Valli, 2014. "Growth and crises in the Italian economy," Chapters, in: Riccardo Bellofiore & Giovanna Vertova (ed.), The Great Recession and the Contradictions of Contemporary Capitalism, chapter 10, pages 165-188, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Mario Coccia, 2013. "Population and technological innovation: the optimal interaction across modern countries," CERIS Working Paper 201307, CNR-IRCrES Research Institute on Sustainable Economic Growth - Torino (TO) ITALY - former Institute for Economic Research on Firms and Growth - Moncalieri (TO) ITALY.

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