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Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia

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Author Info
David E. Bloom (Harvard School of Public Health)
David Canning (Harvard School of Public Health)
Jocelyn E. Finlay (Harvard School of Public Health)

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Abstract

In 1994 the World Bank called East Asia's strong economic growth performance a "miracle". Trade openness, high savings rates, human capital accumulation, and macroeconomic policy only explained part of this growth performance; the remainder was left unexplained. Research in the ensuing years has shown that when demographic change in East Asia is taken into account, the miracle is explained. These earlier studies used the 1960-1990 sample period, but since 1990 Asia has undergone major economic reforms in response to financial crises and other factors. Moreover, rapid demographic change has continued in East Asia, and in Asia more generally, with fertility rates falling below replacement in many of these countries. In this paper, we re-examine the role of the demographic transition in explaining cross-country differences in economic growth, with a particular focus on East Asia. With the working-age share beginning to decline in many Asian countries, innovation and flexibility in the labor market will be required for them to continue to enjoy the high rates of economic growth they have experienced to date.

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Paper provided by Program on the Global Demography of Aging in its series PGDA Working Papers with number 4108.

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Date of creation: Nov 2008
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Handle: RePEc:gdm:wpaper:4108

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Keywords: Global health; fertility; Asia; labor; Aging; Economics; Demography.;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  7. Quah, Danny T, 1997. " Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 27-59, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2007. "Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend," NBER Working Papers 13583, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. John Strauss & Duncan Thomas, 1998. "Health, Nutrition, and Economic Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 766-817, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Quah, Danny, 1997. "Empirics for Growth and Distribution: Stratification, Polarization, and Convergence Clubs," CEPR Discussion Papers 1586, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. David E. Bloom & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "Geography, Demography, and Economic Growth in Africa," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998-2), pages 207-296. [Downloadable!]
  17. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Fink, Gunther & Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2007. "Does age structure forecast economic growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 569-585. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Schultz, T Paul, 1994. "Human Capital, Family Planning, and Their Effects on Population Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 255-60, May.
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  20. Kelley, Allen C. & Schmidt, Robert M., 1995. "Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of Demographic Change," Working Papers 95-37, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  23. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2008. "Demographic Change, Institutional Settings, and Labor Supply," PGDA Working Papers 4208, Program on the Global Demography of Aging. [Downloadable!]
  24. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1998-1), pages 1-90. [Downloadable!]
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  26. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert F. Tamura, 1990. "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Romer, Paul, 1993. "Idea gaps and object gaps in economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 543-573, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  30. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Mansfield, Richard K. & Moore, Michael, 2007. "Demographic change, social security systems, and savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 92-114, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  31. Pritchett, Lant & Summers, Lawrence H., 1993. "Wealthier is healthier," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1150, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  32. David E. Bloom & Richard B. Freeman, 1986. "Population Growth, Labor Supply, and Employment in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 1837, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  33. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  34. Leff, Nathaniel H, 1969. "Dependency Rates and Savings Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(5), pages 886-96, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  35. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  38. Hanushek, Eric A, 1992. "The Trade-Off between Child Quantity and Quality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(1), pages 84-117, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  39. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 92-96, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  41. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jocelyn Finlay, 2008. "Population Aging and Economic Growth in Asia," PGDA Working Papers 4008, Program on the Global Demography of Aging. [Downloadable!]
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  42. Jeffrey Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Progress of Global Integration," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1733, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  43. Islam, Nazrul, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2008. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," PGDA Working Papers 4108, Program on the Global Demography of Aging. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Bloom, David & Canning, David, 2006. "Global Demography: Fact, Force and Future," MPRA Paper 2577, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Dholakia Ravindra H., 2008. "Inter-relationship between Economic Growth, Savings and Inflation in Asia," IIMA Working Papers 2008-07-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2004. "Global Demographic Change: Dimensions and Economic Significance," NBER Working Papers 10817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Diaz-Bautista, Alejandro, 2002. "The role of telecommunications infrastructure and human capital: Mexico´s economic growth and convergence," ERSA conference papers ersa02p102, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  6. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2007. "Does Age Structure Forecast Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 13221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Stephan Klasen & Thorsten Nestmann, 2004. "Population, Population Density, and Technological Change," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2002. "Sind die Probleme der Bevölkerungsalterung durch eine höhere Geburtenrate lösbar?," MEA discussion paper series 02025, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Eric Neumayer & Matthew A. Cole, 2003. "The Impact of Poor Health on Total Factor Productivity," HEW 0312001, EconWPA, revised 02 Nov 2004. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Rafael Gómez & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2006. "The importance of being mature: the effect of demographic maturation on global per-capita income," Banco de España Occasional Papers 0604, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  11. Artelaris, Panagiotis & Arvanitidis, Paschalis & Petrakos, George, 2006. "Theoretical and Methodological Study on Dynamic Growth Regions and Factors Explaining their Growth Performance," Papers DYNREG02, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
  12. DelaCruz, Juan, 2007. "A brief contribution to the debate over the impact if HIV/AIDS on economic growth," MPRA Paper 10840, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  13. François Combarnous, 2003. "Le développement de l'humain comme préalable au développement économique : l'apport de l'analyse en composantes principales," Documents de travail 84, Groupe d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV. [Downloadable!]
  14. Lindh, Thomas, 1999. "Medium-Term Forecasts of Potential GDP and Inflation Using Age Structure Information," Working Paper Series 99, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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  15. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2003. "Contraception and the Celtic Tiger," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 229–247. [Downloadable!]
  16. Barry Bosworth & Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, 2007. "Saving and Demographic Change: The Global Dimension," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2007-02, Center for Retirement Research, revised Feb 2007. [Downloadable!]
  17. Rafael Gómez & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2006. "The importance of being mature - the effect of demographic maturation on global per-capita GDP," Working Paper Series 670, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  18. Rafael Gómez & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2008. "The importance of being mature: the effect of demographic maturation on global per capita GDP," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 589-608, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Barry P. Bosworth & Ralph C. Bryant & Gary Burtless, 2004. "The Impact of Aging on Financial Markets and the Economy: A Survey," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2004-23, Center for Retirement Research. [Downloadable!]
  20. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jaypee Sevilla, 2001. "Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition," NBER Working Papers 8685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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