IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ssa/lemwps/2021-24.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A multiscale network-based model of contagion dynamics: heterogeneity, spatial distancing and vaccination

Author

Listed:
  • Maira Aguiar
  • Giovanni Dosi
  • Damian A. Knopoff
  • Maria Enrica Virgillito

Abstract

Lockdown and vaccination policies have been the major concern in the last year in order to contain the SARS-CoV-2 infection during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper we present a model able to evaluate alternative lockdown policies and vaccination strategies. Our approach integrates and refines the multiscale model proposed by Bellomo et al. , 2020, analyzing alternative network structures and bridging two perspectives to study complexity of living systems. Inside dierent matrices of contacts we explore the impact of closures of distinct nodes upon the overall contagion dynamics. Social distancing is shown to be more effective when targeting the reduction of contacts among and inside the most vulnerable nodes, namely hospitals/nursing homes. Moreover, our results suggest that school closures alone would not signicantly affect the infection dynamics and the number of deaths in the population. Finally, we investigate a scenario with immunization in order to understand the effectiveness of targeted vaccination policies towards the most vulnerable individuals. Our model agrees with the current proposed vaccination strategy prioritising the most vulnerable segment of the population to reduce deaths.

Suggested Citation

  • Maira Aguiar & Giovanni Dosi & Damian A. Knopoff & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2021. "A multiscale network-based model of contagion dynamics: heterogeneity, spatial distancing and vaccination," LEM Papers Series 2021/24, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    • Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2021/24
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.lem.sssup.it/WPLem/files/2021-24.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Armanda Cetrulo & Dario Guarascio & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2020. "The Privilege of Working From Home at the Time of Social Distancing," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(3), pages 142-147, May.
    2. Giovanni Dosi, 2021. "Some policy lessons from medical/therapeutic responses to the COVID-19 Crisis: A rich research system for knowledge generation and dysfunctional institutions for its exploitation," LEM Papers Series 2021/19, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    3. Nicola Bellomo & Richard Bingham & Mark A.J. Chaplain & Giovanni Dosi & Guido Forni & Damian A. Knopoff & John Lowengrub & Reidun Twarock & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2020. "A multi-scale model of virus pandemic: Heterogeneous interactive entities in a globally connected world," LEM Papers Series 2020/16, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    4. Giovanni Dosi, 2021. "Policy Lessons From Medical Responses to the COVID-19 Crisis," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 56(6), pages 337-340, November.
    5. Ganna Rozhnova & Christiaan H. Dorp & Patricia Bruijning-Verhagen & Martin C. J. Bootsma & Janneke H. H. M. Wijgert & Marc J. M. Bonten & Mirjam E. Kretzschmar, 2021. "Model-based evaluation of school- and non-school-related measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    6. Pareschi, Lorenzo & Toscani, Giuseppe, 2013. "Interacting Multiagent Systems: Kinetic equations and Monte Carlo methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199655465.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Stefano Costa & Stefano De Santis & Giovanni Dosi & Roberto Monducci & Angelica Sbardella & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2021. "Firm responses to the pandemic crisis: sticky capabilites and widespread restructuring," LEM Papers Series 2021/48, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    2. Dosi, Giovanni & Soete, Luc, 2022. "On the syndemic nature of crises: A Freeman perspective," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(1).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicola Bellomo & Richard Bingham & Mark A.J. Chaplain & Giovanni Dosi & Guido Forni & Damian A. Knopoff & John Lowengrub & Reidun Twarock & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2020. "A multi-scale model of virus pandemic: Heterogeneous interactive entities in a globally connected world," LEM Papers Series 2020/16, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    2. Dosi, Giovanni & Palagi, Elisa & Roventini, Andrea & Russo, Emanuele, 2023. "Do patents really foster innovation in the pharmaceutical sector? Results from an evolutionary, agent-based model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 564-589.
    3. G. Dosi & L. Fanti & M. E. Virgillito, 2020. "Unequal societies in usual times, unjust societies in pandemic ones," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 47(3), pages 371-389, September.
    4. Fabio Vanni & David Lambert & Luigi Palatella, 2020. "Epidemic response to physical distancing policies and their impact on the outbreak risk," Papers 2007.14620, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2020.
    5. Arnab K Ghosh & Sara Venkatraman & Evgeniya Reshetnyak & Mangala Rajan & Anjile An & John K Chae & Mark A Unruh & David Abramson & Charles DiMaggio & Nathaniel Hupert, 2022. "Association between city-wide lockdown and COVID-19 hospitalization rates in multigenerational households in New York City," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(3), pages 1-13, March.
    6. Trystan Leng & Edward M. Hill & Alex Holmes & Emma Southall & Robin N. Thompson & Michael J. Tildesley & Matt J. Keeling & Louise Dyson, 2022. "Quantifying pupil-to-pupil SARS-CoV-2 transmission and the impact of lateral flow testing in English secondary schools," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Severin Reissl & Alessandro Caiani & Francesco Lamperti & Mattia Guerini & Fabio Vanni & Giorgio Fagiolo & Tommaso Ferraresi & Leonardo Ghezzi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2022. "Assessing the Economic Impact of Lockdowns in Italy: A Computational Input–Output Approach [Nonlinear Production Networks with an Application to the Covid-19 Crisis]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(2), pages 358-409.
    8. Marta Fana & Francesco Sabato Massimo & Angelo Moro, 2021. "Autonomy and control in mass remote working during the Covid-19 pandemic. Evidence from a cross-professional and cross-national analysis," LEM Papers Series 2021/28, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    9. Agar Brugiavini & Raluca E. Buia & Irene Simonetti, 2022. "Occupation and working outcomes during the Coronavirus Pandemic," European Journal of Ageing, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 863-882, December.
    10. Lorenzo Pareschi & Giuseppe Toscani, 2014. "Wealth distribution and collective knowledge. A Boltzmann approach," Papers 1401.4550, arXiv.org.
    11. Giuseppe Toscani, 2016. "Kinetic and mean field description of Gibrat's law," Papers 1606.04796, arXiv.org.
    12. Xia Zhou & Shaoyong Lai, 2023. "The mutual influence of knowledge and individual wealth growth," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 96(6), pages 1-22, June.
    13. Teresa Barbieri & Gaetano Basso & Sergio Scicchitano, 2022. "Italian Workers at Risk During the COVID-19 Epidemic," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 8(1), pages 175-195, March.
    14. A. Cetrulo & A. Sbardella & M. E. Virgillito, 2023. "Vanishing social classes? Facts and figures of the Italian labour market," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 97-148, January.
    15. Fang, Fanshu & Ma, Jing & Li, Yanli, 2023. "The coevolution of the spread of a disease and competing opinions in multiplex networks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    16. G. Dimarco & L. Pareschi & G. Toscani & M. Zanella, 2020. "Wealth distribution under the spread of infectious diseases," Papers 2004.13620, arXiv.org.
    17. Albi, Giacomo & Chignola, Roberto & Ferrarese, Federica, 2022. "Efficient ensemble stochastic algorithms for agent-based models with spatial predator–prey dynamics," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 317-340.
    18. A. Cetrulo & D. Guarascio & M. E. Virgillito, 2022. "Working from home and the explosion of enduring divides: income, employment and safety risks," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 39(2), pages 345-402, July.
    19. Lachowicz, Mirosław & Leszczyński, Henryk & Topolski, Krzysztof A., 2022. "Approximations of kinetic equations of swarm formation: Convergence and exact solutions," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 417(C).
    20. Otilia Boldea & Adriana Cornea-Madeira & João Madeira, 2023. "Disentangling the effect of measures, variants, and vaccines on SARS-CoV-2 infections in England: a dynamic intensity model," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 26(3), pages 444-466.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pandemic; COVID-19; epidemiological models; kinetic theory; active particles; spatial patterns; networks; vaccination; health policies.;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2021/24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/labssit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.