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Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Inflation Environment in Industrialized Countries: An Empirical Investigation

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Author Info
Eiji Fuji
Jeannine Bailliu

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Abstract

This paper investigates the question of whether a transition to a low-inflation environment, induced by a shift in monetary policy, results in a decline in exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices. Our study distinguishes itself from previous empirical work in that we pay particular attention to the identification of changes in the inflation environment, we use a panel-data approach, and we extend our analysis to allow for the possibility that prices may respond asymmetrically to appreciations and depreciations. Using a panel-data set of eleven industrialized countries over the period from 1977 to 2001, we find evidence in support of the hypothesis that exchange rate pass-through declines with a shift to a low-inflation environment. More specifically, our results suggest that pass-through to import, producer and consumer price inflation declined following the inflation stabilization period that occurred in many industrialized countries in the early 1990s, but not following a similar episode that occurred in the 1980s. In extending our investigation to allow for the possibility that prices may respond asymmetrically to appreciations and depreciations, we find evidence that aggregate inflation, across all three price indices that we consider, responds more strongly in the case of a depreciation than it does in the case of an appreciation. However, we find no evidence that this asymmetric behavior changes with a shift to low-inflation environment

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 with number 135.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf4:135

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Related research
Keywords: exchange rate pass-through; inflation; monetary policy regimes;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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    Other versions:
  2. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Ioannis Halikias, 1993. "Testing the Credibility of Belgium's Exchange Rate Policy," IMF Working Papers 93/76, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel & Peter E. Storgaard, 2003. "Endogenous Exchange Rate Pass-through when Nominal Prices are Set in Advance," NBER Working Papers 9543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Paul Krugman, 1986. "Pricing to Market when the Exchange Rate Changes," NBER Working Papers 1926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Maral Kichian, 2001. "On the Nature and the Stability of the Canadian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 01-4, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon?," NBER Working Papers 8934, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Engel, Charles, 2002. "The Responsiveness of Consumer Prices to Exchange Rates: A Synthesis of Some New Open Economy Macro Models," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 70(0), pages 1-15, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Ruth A. Judson & Ann L. Owen, 1997. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a practical guide for macroeconomists," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-3, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  15. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Exchange Rates and Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 93-106, March.
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  16. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
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    Other versions:
  25. Paul Louis Ceriel Hilbers, 1998. "Financial Sector Reform and Monetary Policy in the Netherlands," IMF Working Papers 98/19, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Amstad, Marlene & Fischer, Andreas M, 2005. "Time-Varying Pass-Through from Import Prices to Consumer Prices: Evidence from an Event Study with Real-Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5395, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2008. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through And Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13889, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Reginaldo P. Nogueira Jnr, 2006. "Inflation Targeting and the Role of Exchange Rate Pass-through," Studies in Economics 0602, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
  4. Oxana Babetskaia-Kukharchuk, 2007. "Transmission of Exchange Rate Shocks into Domestic Inflation: The Case of the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2007/12, Czech National Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Goldberg, Linda S. & Campa, Jose M., 2006. "Distribution margins, imported inputs, and the insensitivity of the CPI to exchange rates," IESE Research Papers D/625, IESE Business School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Coricelli, Fabrizio & Égert, Balázs & MacDonald, Ronald, 2006. "Monetary transmission mechanism in Central and Eastern Europe: Gliding on a wind of change," BOFIT Discussion Papers 8/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  7. Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian, 2006. "Structural Change in Covariance and Exchange Rate Pass-Through: The Case of Canada," Working Papers 06-2, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  8. Claudio Soto & Luis F. Céspedes, 2006. "Credibility and Inflation Targeting in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 408, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  9. barhoumi karim, 2005. "Long Run Exchange Rate Pass-Through Into Import Prices In Developing Countries: An Homogeneous or Heterogeneous Phenomenon?," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 6(14), pages 1-12. [Downloadable!]
  10. Reginaldo P. Nogueira Junior & Miguel Leon-Ledesma, 2008. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through Into Inflation: The Role of Asymmetries and NonLinearities," Studies in Economics 0801, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
  11. Haroon Mumtaz & Özlem Oomen & Jian Wang, . "Exchange rate pass-through into UK import prices," Bank of England working papers 312, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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