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The Returns to Currency Speculation

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Author Info
Craig Burnside () (Department of Economics Duke University)
Martin Eichenbaum
Isaac Kleshchelski
Sergio Rebelo

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Abstract

Currencies that are at a forward premium tend to depreciate. This `forward premium-depreciation anomaly' represents an egregious deviation from uncovered interest parity. We document the returns to currency speculation strategies that exploit this anomaly. The first strategy, known as the carry trade, is widely used by practitioners. This strategy involves selling currencies forward that are at a forward premium and buying those that are at a forward discount. The second strategy relies on a particular regression to forecast the payoff to selling currencies forward. We show that these strategies yield high Sharpe ratios which are not a compensation for risk. However, these Sharpe ratios do not represent unexploited profit opportunities. In the presence of microstructure frictions, spot and forward exchange rates move against traders as they increase their positions. The resulting `price pressure' drives a wedge between average and marginal Sharpe ratios. We argue that marginal Sharpe ratios are zero even though average Sharpe ratios are positive. We display a simple microstructure model that simultaneously rationalizes `price pressure' and the forward premium-depreciation puzzle. The central feature of this model is that market makers face an adverse selection problem that is less severe when, based on public information, the currency is expected to appreciate

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Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2006 Meeting Papers with number 864.

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Date of creation: 03 Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed006:864

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Related research
Keywords: uncovered interest parity BGT regressions price pressure

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Christian Wagner, 2008. "Risk-Premia, Carry-Trade Dynamics, and Speculative Efficiency of Currency Markets," Working Papers 143, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  2. Philip Lane & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2007. "Financial Exchange Rates and International Currency Exposures," NBER Working Papers 13433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Hanno Lustig & Adrien Verdelhan, 2008. "Note on The Cross-Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk," NBER Working Papers 13812, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2008. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," NBER Working Papers 14082, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bacchetta, Philippe & Mertens, Elmar & van Wincoop, Eric, 2006. "Predictability in Financial Markets: What Do Survey Expectations Tell Us?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5770, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Corinne Winters, 2008. "The Carry Trade, Portfolio Diversification, and the Adjustment of the Japanese Yen," Discussion Papers 08-2, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  7. Emmanuel Farhi & Xavier Gabaix, 2008. "Rare Disasters and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 13805, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Benjamin Eden, 2006. "International Seigniorage Payments," Working Papers 0622, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University. [Downloadable!]
  9. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2007. "Random Walk Expectations and the Forward Discount Puzzle," Working Papers 07.01, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Enrique Sentana & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2007. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity: A Continuous-Time Approach," Working Papers wp2007_0714, CEMFI. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Ricardo Lagos & Guillaume Rocheteau, 2007. "Liquidity in asset markets with search frictions," Working Paper 0706, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
  12. Joseph E. Gagnon & Alain P. Chaboud, 2007. "What can the data tell us about carry trades in Japanese yen?," International Finance Discussion Papers 899, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  13. Angelo Ranaldo & Paul Söderlind, 2007. "Safe Haven Currencies," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2007 2007-22, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Han, Bing & Hirshleifer, David & Wang, Tracy, 2005. "Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Discount Puzzle," MPRA Paper 6497, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Ricardo Lagos & Guillaume Rocheteau, 2008. "Liquidity in asset markets with search frictions," Staff Report 408, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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