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Time-varying risk, interest rates, and exchange rates in general equilibrium

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Author Info
Fernando Alvarez
Andrew Atkeson
Patrick J. Kehoe

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Abstract

Under mild assumptions, the data indicate that fluctuations in nominal interest rate differentials across currencies are primarily fluctuations in time-varying risk. This finding is an immediate implication of the fact that exchange rates are roughly random walks. If most fluctuations in interest differentials are thought to be driven by monetary policy, then the data call for a theory which explains how changes in monetary policy change risk. Here we propose such a theory based on a general equilibrium monetary model with an endogenous source of risk variation - a variable degree of asset market segmentation.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 371.

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Date of creation: 2008
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:371

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Keywords: Asset pricing;

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  37. Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2002. "Limited Asset Market Participation and the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 825-853, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Isaac Kleshchelski & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "The Returns to Currency Speculation," NBER Working Papers 12489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Chris Edmond, 2008. "Sluggish responses of prices and inflation to monetary shocks in an inventory model of money demand," Staff Report 417, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  3. Matthew Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad Diba & David Lopez-Salido, 2008. "The Macroeconomic Implications of a Key Currency," NBER Working Papers 14242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2007. "If exchange rates are random walks, then almost everything we say about monetary policy is wrong," Staff Report 388, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2006. "Incomplete information processing: a solution to the forward discount puzzle," Working Paper Series 2006-35, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Ian Martin, 2009. "Disasters implied by equity index options," NBER Working Papers 15240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Maurice J. Roche & Michael J. Moore, 2007. "Solving Exchange Rate Puzzles with neither Sticky Prices nor Trade Costs," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1750507, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth. [Downloadable!]
  8. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Shing-Yi B. Wang & Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates and interest rates to macroeconomic announcements," International Finance Discussion Papers 784, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  9. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2008. "On the need for a new approach to analyzing monetary policy," Staff Report 412, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Jesús Rodríguez López & Hugo Rodríguez Mendizábal, 2006. "The optimal degree of exchange rate flexibility: A target zone approach," Working Papers 06.22, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2006. "Equilibrium Yield Curves," NBER Working Papers 12609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Pierre Perron† & Tatsuma Wada, 2005. "Let’s Take a Break: Trends and Cycles in US Real GDP?," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-031, Boston University - Department of Economics, revised Oct 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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