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The Use Of A Marshallian Macroeconomic Model For Policy Evaluation: Case Of South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Jacques Kibambe

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Arnold Zellner

    (Booth School of Business, University of Chicago)

Abstract

Using a disaggregated Marshallian Macroeconomic Model (MMM-DA), this paper investigates how the adoption of a set of 'free market reforms' may affect the economic growth rate of South Africa. Accounting for possible side effects mainly on the budget deficit, our findings suggest that the institution of the proposed policy reforms would yield a substantial growth in the aggregate annual real GDP. The resulting GDP growth rate could range from 5.3 percent to 9.8 percent depending on which variant of the reform policies is implemented.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacques Kibambe & Arnold Zellner, 2010. "The Use Of A Marshallian Macroeconomic Model For Policy Evaluation: Case Of South Africa," Working Papers 201013, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201013
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zellner, Arnold & Tobias, Justin, 1998. "A Note on Aggregation, Disaggregation and Forecasting Performance," CUDARE Working Papers 198677, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    2. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1267-1286, September.
    3. Veloce, William & Zellner, Arnold, 1985. "Entry and empirical demand and supply analysis for competitive industries," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 459-471.
    4. Zellner,Arnold & Palm,Franz C. (ed.), 2004. "The Structural Econometric Time Series Analysis Approach," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521814072, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ngoie, Jacques Kibambe, 2014. "Federal research spending and innovation in the U.S. economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 492-506.
    2. Arnold Zellner & Jacques Kibambe Ngoie, 2015. "Evaluation of the Effects of Reduced Personal and Corporate Tax Rates on the Growth Rates of the U.S. Economy," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1-2), pages 56-81, February.
    3. Annari De Waal & Rene頖an Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Do we need a global VAR model to forecast inflation and output in South Africa?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(25), pages 2649-2670, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Marshallian Macroeconometric Model; Disaggregation; Transfer functions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

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