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Explaining the durable goods co-movement puzzle with non-separable preferences: a bayesian approach

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  • Dey, Jaya
  • Tsai, Yi-Chan

Abstract

A standard two-sector sticky price model with flexibly priced durables depicts negative co-movement between durables and non-durables after a monetary policy shock, which is at odds with the empirical evidence. This paper proposes a new channel, non-separable preferences with a small wealth effect on labor hours, as a solution to the co-movement puzzle. In contrast to the standard model where the aggregate hours remain relatively unchanged after the contractionary policy shock, aggregate labor hours fall along with the fall in the labor wage, thereby discouraging production in both the durable and non-durable goods sectors. We further compare our model's explanatory power with two other alternatives that can resolve the puzzle by using a Bayesian approach. Based on the log marginal likelihood and cross-correlation function comparison exercises, we find evidence that the data strongly favor both the alternative specifications over our baseline model. More specifically, the model with a working capital channel and habit formation gives the best fit to the data, especially for cross-correlations between durable and non-durable consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Dey, Jaya & Tsai, Yi-Chan, 2012. "Explaining the durable goods co-movement puzzle with non-separable preferences: a bayesian approach," MPRA Paper 57805, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:57805
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hashmat Khan & Abeer Reza, 2017. "House Prices and Government Spending Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(6), pages 1247-1271, September.
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    3. Furlanetto, Francesco & Seneca, Martin, 2014. "Investment shocks and consumption," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 111-126.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    preferences; wealth effect; monetary policy; inflation; output;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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