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The effects of capital market openness on exchange rate pass-through and welfare in an inflation targeting small open economy

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  • Mukherjee, Sanchita

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of capital market openness on exchange rate pass-through and subsequently on the social loss in an inflation targeting small open economy under a pure commitment policy. Applying the intuition behind the macroeconomic trilemma, I examine whether a more open capital market in an inflation targeting country improves the credibility of the central bank and consequently reduces exchange rate pass-through. First, I empirically examine the effect of capital openness on exchange rate pass-through using a New Keynesian Phillips curve. The empirical investigation reveals that limited capital openness leads to greater pass-through from the exchange rate to domestic inflation, which raises the marginal cost of deviation from the inflation target. This subsequently worsens the inflation output-gap trade-off and increases the social loss of the inflation targeting central bank under pure commitment. However, the calibration results suggest that the inflation output-gap trade-off improves and the social loss decreases even in the presence of larger exchange rate pass-through if the capital controls are effective at insulating the exchange rate from interest rate and risk-premia shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Mukherjee, Sanchita, 2011. "The effects of capital market openness on exchange rate pass-through and welfare in an inflation targeting small open economy," MPRA Paper 30478, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:30478
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Inflation Targeting; Exchange rate pass-through; Capital account openness; Small open economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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