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Lucky in Life, Unlucky in Love? The Effect of Random Income Shocks on Marriage and Divorce

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Author Info
Mark L. Hoekstra
Scott Hankins
Abstract

Economists have long been interested in the extent to which economic resources affect decisions to marry and divorce. For married couples, an increase in resources can either provide a stabilization effect or, alternatively, can enable divorce by allowing the couple to overcome costs associated with divorce. Similarly, while economic theory predicts that an increase in income makes an unmarried person more attractive to potential marriage partners, it may also make single life more attractive. However, answering these questions empirically has been difficult due to a lack of exogenous income shocks. We overcome this problem by exploiting the randomness of the Florida Lottery and comparing recipients of large prizes to those of small prizes. Results indicate that while positive income shocks of $25,000 to $50,000 do not cause statistically significant or economically meaningful changes in divorce rates, single women are less likely to marry as a result of the additional income.

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Paper provided by University of Pittsburgh, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 329.

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Date of creation: Nov 2007
Date of revision: Apr 2009
Handle: RePEc:pit:wpaper:329

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  1. Moffitt, Robert, 1992. "Incentive Effects of the U.S. Welfare System: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 1-61, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. David G. Schramm, 2006. "Individual and Social Costs of Divorce in Utah," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 133-151, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Melvin Stephens, 2003. ""3rd of tha Month": Do Social Security Recipients Smooth Consumption Between Checks?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 406-422, March. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kerwin Kofi Charles & Melvin Stephens, 2004. "Job Displacement, Disability, and Divorce," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 22(2), pages 489-522, April. [Downloadable!]
  5. Jerry Hausman, 2001. "Mismeasured Variables in Econometric Analysis: Problems from the Right and Problems from the Left," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 57-67, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Guido W. Imbens & Donald B. Rubin & Bruce I. Sacerdote, 2001. "Estimating the Effect of Unearned Income on Labor Earnings, Savings, and Consumption: Evidence from a Survey of Lottery Players," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 778-794, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Mikael Lindahl, 2005. "Estimating the Effect of Income on Health and Mortality Using Lottery Prizes as an Exogenous Source of Variation in Income," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 40(1). [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Johnson, William R & Skinner, Jonathan, 1986. "Labor Supply and Marital Separation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 455-69, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Shapiro, Jesse M., 2005. "Is there a daily discount rate? Evidence from the food stamp nutrition cycle," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2-3), pages 303-325, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Hausman, J. A. & Abrevaya, Jason & Scott-Morton, F. M., 1998. "Misclassification of the dependent variable in a discrete-response setting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 239-269, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Wei-Yin Hu, 2003. "Marriage and Economic Incentives: Evidence from a Welfare Experiment," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 38(4). [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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