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The Effect of Expected Income on Individual Migration Decisions

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Author Info
John Kennan
James R. Walker

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Abstract

The paper develops a tractable econometric model of optimal migration, focusing on expected income as the main economic influence on migration. The model improves on previous work in two respects: it covers optimal sequences of location decisions (rather than a single once-for-all choice), and it allows for many alternative location choices. The model is estimated using panel data from the NLSY on white males with a high school education. Our main conclusion is that interstate migration decisions are influenced to a substantial extent by income prospects. The results suggest that the link between income and migration decisions is driven both by geographic differences in mean wages and by a tendency to move in search of a better locational match when the income realization in the current location is unfavorable.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9585.

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Date of creation: Mar 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9585

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies
J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1991-1), pages 107-182. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Banks, Jeffrey S & Sundaram, Rangarajan K, 1994. "Switching Costs and the Gittins Index," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 687-94, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Schultz, T Paul, 1982. "Lifetime Migration within Educational Strata in Venezuela: Estimates of a Logistic Model," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(3), pages 559-93, April.
  5. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1992-1), pages 1-76. [Downloadable!]
  6. Katz, Lawrence F. & Autor, David H., 1999. "Changes in the wage structure and earnings inequality," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 26, pages 1463-1555 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Keane, Michael P & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1997. "The Career Decisions of Young Men," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(3), pages 473-522, June.
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  8. Tunali, Insan, 2000. "Rationality of Migration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(4), pages 893-920, November.
  9. Topel, Robert H, 1986. "Local Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages S111-43, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Christian Bayer & Falko Juessen, 2006. "On the Dynamics of Interstate Migration: Migration Costs and Self-Selection," Discussion Papers in Economics 06_03, University of Dortmund, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Jennifer Hunt, 2004. "Are Migrants More Skilled than Non-Migrants? Repeat, Return and Same-Employer Migrants," NBER Working Papers 10633, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Christopher Ferrall, 2008. "Explaining and Forecasting Results of The Self-Sufficiency Project," Working Papers 1165, Queen's University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Giacomo De Giorgi & Michele Pellizzari, 2006. "Welfare Migration in Europe and the Cost of a Harmonised Social Assistance," IZA Discussion Papers 2094, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  5. John C. Ham & Xianghong Li & Patricia B. Reagan, 2005. "Propensity score matching, a distance-based measure of migration, and the wage growth of young men," Staff Reports 212, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  6. John C. Ham & Xianghong Li & Patricia B. Reagan, 2004. "Propensity Score Matching, a Distance-Based Measure of Migration, and the Wage Growth of Young Men," Working Papers 2004_3, York University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Rodolfo Manuelli & Ananth Seshadri, 2003. "Frictionless Technology Diffusion: The Case of Tractors," NBER Working Papers 9604, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Erhan Artuc & Shubham Chaudhuri & John McLaren, 2007. "Trade Shocks and Labor Adjustment: A Structural Empirical Approach," NBER Working Papers 13465, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Peter Egger & Stefan Gruber & Mario Larch & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2007. "Knowledge–capital meets new economic geography," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 857-875, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Shintaro Yamaguchi, 2007. "The Effect of Match Quality and Specific Experience on Career Decisions and Wage Growth," Department of Economics Working Papers 2007-01, McMaster University. [Downloadable!]
  11. John C. Ham & Xianghong Li & Patricia B. Reagan, 2004. "Propensity Score Matching, a Distance-Based Measure of Migration, and the Wage Growth of Young Men," IEPR Working Papers 05.13, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR). [Downloadable!]
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