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Financial Market Efficiency Tests

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Author Info
Tim Bollerslev
Robert J. Hodrick

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Abstract

This paper provides a selective survey of the voluminous literature on tests for market efficiency. The ideas discussed include standard autocorrelation tests, multi-period regression tests and volatility tests. The formulation and estimation of models for time-varying volatility are also considered. Dependence in second-order moments plays an important role in implementing and understanding tests for market efficiency. All of the reported test statistics and model estimates are calculated with monthly data on value-weighted NYSE stock prices and dividends. The distributions of the test statistics under various alternatives, including fads and bubbles, are illustrated through the use of Monte Carlo methods. In addition to the standard constant discount rate present value model, we postulate and simulate a new fundamental price relationship that accounts for the time-varying uncertainty in the monthly dividend growth rates. Allowing the discount rate to be a function of the time-varying uncertainty in the dividend process results in a simulated fundamental price series that is broadly consistent with most of the sample statistics of the actual data.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4108.

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Date of creation: Jun 1992
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4108

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller & ), 1995. "Fads or Bubbles?," Econometrics 9502004, EconWPA, revised 06 Jun 1995. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Jorge Selaive & Vicente Tuesta, 2004. "Can Fluctuations in the Consumption-Wealth Ratio Help to Predict Exchange Rates?," International Finance 0404014, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Berg, Lennart, 2000. "Deterministic Seasonal Volatility in a Small and Integrated Stock Market: The Case of Sweden," Working Paper Series 2000:9, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Silvio John Camilleri, 2005. "Can a Stock Index be Less Efficient than Underlying Shares? An Analysis Using Malta Stock Exchange Data," Finance 0507006, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Marquering, W. & Verbeek, M., 2000. "The economic value of predicting stock index returns and volatility," Discussion Paper 78, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  6. Angelos Kanas, 2003. "Non-linear forecasts of stock returns," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 299-315. [Downloadable!]
  7. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," NBER Working Papers 8207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. R.-P. Berben & D.J.C. van Dijk, 1998. "Does the absence of cointegration explain the typical findings in long horizon regressions?," Econometric Institute Report 145, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1997. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 6312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Kilian, Lutz, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Long-Horizon Regressions?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 491-510, Sept.-Oct. [Downloadable!]
  11. Riad Dahel, . "Volatility in Arab Stock Market," API-Working Paper Series 9905, Arab Planning Institute - Kuwait, Information Center. [Downloadable!]
  12. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2000. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," NBER Working Papers 8059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Meredith Beechey & David Gruen & James Vickery, 2000. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis: A Survey," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-01, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  14. Peter N Smith & Michael R Wickens, . "Asset Pricing with Observable Stochastic Discount Factors," Discussion Papers 02/03, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Leonardo Bartolini & Lorenzo Giorgianni, 2000. "Excess volatility of exchange rates with unobservable fundamentals," Staff Reports 103, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Tim Bollerslev & Eric Ghysels, 1994. "On Periodic Autogressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity," CIRANO Working Papers 94s-03, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  17. Leonardo Bartolini & Gordon M. Bodnar, 1996. "Are exchange rates excessively volatile? And what does "excessively volatile" mean, anyway?," Research Paper 9601, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  18. John Y. Campbell, 1993. "Why Long Horizons: A Study of Power Against Persistent Alternatives," NBER Technical Working Papers 0142, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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