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The Theory of Rational Bubbles in Stock Prices

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Author Info
Diba, Behzad T
Grossman, Herschel I

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Abstract

Free disposal of equity, which directly rules out the existence of negative rational bubbles in stock pric es, also imposes theoretical restrictions on the possible existence o f positive rational bubbles. The analysis in this paper shows that a positive rational bubble can start only on the first date of trading of a stock. Thus, the existence of a rational bubble at any date woul d imply that the stock has been overvalued relative to market fundame ntals since the first date of trading, and that prior to the first da te of trading the issuer of the stock and potential stockholders who anticipated the initial pricing of the stock expected that the stock would be overvalued. Copyright 1988 by Royal Economic Society.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Royal Economic Society in its journal The Economic Journal.

Volume (Year): 98 (1988)
Issue (Month): 392 (September)
Pages: 746-54
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:98:y:1988:i:392:p:746-54

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  1. Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2005. "Econometric tests of asset price bubbles: taking stock," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  2. W. Brian Arthur & John H. Holland & Blake LeBaron & Richard Palmer & Paul Taylor, 1996. "Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectation in an Artificial Stock Market," Working Papers 96-12-093, Santa Fe Institute.
  3. Esteban Gómez & sandra Rozo, 2007. "Beyond Bubbles:The role of asset prices in early-warning indicators," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004050, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Tim Bollerslev & Robert J. Hodrick, 1992. "Financial Market Efficiency Tests," NBER Working Papers 4108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Eli Ofek & Matthew Richardson, 2001. "DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices," NBER Working Papers 8630, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kevin J. Lansing, 2007. "Rational and near-rational bubbles without drift," Working Paper Series 2007-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  7. Andreas Billmeier & Isabella Massa, 2007. "Go Long or Short in Pyramids? News from the Egyptian Stock Market," IMF Working Papers 07/179, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Tro Kortian, 1995. "Modern Approaches to Asset Price Formation: A Survey of Recent Theoretical Literature," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9501, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  9. James Payne & George Waters, 2007. "Have Equity REITs Experienced Periodically Collapsing Bubbles?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 207-224, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Fernando Díaz & Rodrigo Sánchez, 2001. "Acciones Tecnológicas: ¿Un Episodio De Burbujas Especulativas En El Mercado?," Abante, Escuela de Administracion. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 4(1), pages 37-82. [Downloadable!]
  11. Charemza W.W. & M. Lifshits & S. Makarova, 2002. "Conditional testing for unit-root bilinearity in financial time series: some theoretical and empirical results," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 251, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Shareen Joshi & Jeffrey Parker & Mark A. Bedau, 1998. "Technical Trading Creates a Prisoner's Dilemma: Results from an Agent-Based Model," Research in Economics 98-12-115e, Santa Fe Institute. [Downloadable!]
  13. Ralph Chami & Thomas F. Cosimano & Connel Fullenkamp, 2001. "Capital Trading, Stock Trading, and the Inflation Tax on Equity," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(3), pages 575-606, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Esteban Gómez & Sandra Rozo, 2007. "Beyond Bubbles: The role of asset prices in early-warning indicators," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004245, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  15. Qin Xiao & Randolph Gee Kwang Tan, 2006. "Signal Extraction with Kalman Filter: A Study of the Hong Kong Property Price Bubbles," Economic Growth centre Working Paper Series 0601, Nanyang Technolgical University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth centre. [Downloadable!]
  16. Jie Zheng, 2008. "Strong Bubbles and Common Expected Bubbles in a Finite Horizon Model," Levine's Working Paper Archive 814577000000000038, David K. Levine. [Downloadable!]
  17. Garrett H. TeSelle, 1998. "Bubbles or noise? Reconciling the results of broad-dividend variance-bounds tests," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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