IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/20704.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Do Credit Market Shocks affect the Real Economy? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the Great Recession and ‘Normal’ Economic Times

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Greenstone
  • Alexandre Mas
  • Hoai-Luu Nguyen

Abstract

We estimate the effect of the reduction in credit supply that followed the 2008 financial crisis on the real economy. We predict county lending shocks using variation in pre-crisis bank market shares and estimated bank supply-shifts. Counties with negative predicted shocks experienced declines in small business loan originations, indicating that it is costly for these businesses to find new lenders. Using confidential microdata from the Longitudinal Business Database, we find that the 2007-2009 lending shocks accounted for statistically significant, but economically small, declines in both small firm and overall employment. Predicted lending shocks affected lending but not employment from 1997-2007.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Greenstone & Alexandre Mas & Hoai-Luu Nguyen, 2014. "Do Credit Market Shocks affect the Real Economy? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the Great Recession and ‘Normal’ Economic Times," NBER Working Papers 20704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20704
    Note: CF EFG LS ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w20704.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    2. Berger, Allen N. & Miller, Nathan H. & Petersen, Mitchell A. & Rajan, Raghuram G. & Stein, Jeremy C., 2005. "Does function follow organizational form? Evidence from the lending practices of large and small banks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 237-269, May.
    3. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    4. Almeida, Heitor & Campello, Murillo & Laranjeira, Bruno & Weisbenner, Scott, 2012. "Corporate Debt Maturity and the Real Effects of the 2007 Credit Crisis," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 3-58, January.
    5. Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2009. "Deciphering the Liquidity and Credit Crunch 2007-2008," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 77-100, Winter.
    6. Ben S. Bernanke & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "The Credit Crunch," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 205-248.
    7. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-276, June.
    8. Sumit Agarwal, 2010. "Distance and Private Information in Lending," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(7), pages 2757-2788, July.
    9. Card, David, 2001. "Immigrant Inflows, Native Outflows, and the Local Labor Market Impacts of Higher Immigration," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(1), pages 22-64, January.
    10. John Haltiwanger & Ron S. Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2010. "Who Creates Jobs? Small vs. Large vs. Young," Working Papers 10-17, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    11. Haifang Huang & Eric Stephens, 2015. "From housing bust to credit crunch: Evidence from small business loans," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 48(3), pages 853-880, August.
    12. Eric S. Rosengren & Joe Peek, 2000. "Collateral Damage: Effects of the Japanese Bank Crisis on Real Activity in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 30-45, March.
    13. Teresa C Fort & John Haltiwanger & Ron S Jarmin & Javier Miranda, 2013. "How Firms Respond to Business Cycles: The Role of Firm Age and Firm Size," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(3), pages 520-559, August.
    14. Ivashina, Victoria & Scharfstein, David, 2010. "Bank lending during the financial crisis of 2008," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 319-338, September.
    15. David Neumark & Brandon Wall & Junfu Zhang, 2011. "Do Small Businesses Create More Jobs? New Evidence for the United States from the National Establishment Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(1), pages 16-29, August.
    16. Adam B. Ashcraft, 2005. "Are Banks Really Special? New Evidence from the FDIC-Induced Failure of Healthy Banks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1712-1730, December.
    17. Petersen, Mitchell A & Rajan, Raghuram G, 1994. "The Benefits of Lending Relationships: Evidence from Small Business Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 3-37, March.
    18. Elizabeth Laderman, 2008. "The quantity and character of out-of-market small business lending," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 31-39.
    19. Hoshi, Takeo & Kashyap, Anil & Scharfstein, David, 1990. "The role of banks in reducing the costs of financial distress in Japan," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 67-88, September.
    20. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, 2014. "The Employment Effects of Credit Market Disruptions: Firm-level Evidence from the 2008-9 Financial Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(1), pages 1-59.
    21. Cole, Rebel A., 1998. "The importance of relationships to the availability of credit," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(6-8), pages 959-977, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Duygan-Bump, Burcu & Levkov, Alexey & Montoriol-Garriga, Judit, 2015. "Financing constraints and unemployment: Evidence from the Great Recession," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 89-105.
    2. Glancy, David, 2021. "Housing bust, bank lending & employment: Evidence from multimarket banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    3. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    4. Committee, Nobel Prize, 2022. "Financial Intermediation and the Economy," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2022-2, Nobel Prize Committee.
    5. Senay Agca & Pablo Slutzky & Stefan Zeume, 2021. "Anti-Money Laundering Enforcement, Banks, and the Real Economy," Working Papers 2021-20, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    6. Tamara Vovchak, 2017. "Bank Credit, Liquidity Shocks and Firm Performance: Evidence from the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp584, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    7. Cortés, Kristle R. & Demyanyk, Yuliya & Li, Lei & Loutskina, Elena & Strahan, Philip E., 2020. "Stress tests and small business lending," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 260-279.
    8. Nadja Dwenger & Frank M Fossen & Martin Simmler, 2015. "From financial to real economic crisis: evidence from individual firm¨Cbank relationships in Germany," Working Papers 1516, Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation.
    9. Kilian Huber, 2015. "The Persistence of a Banking Crisis," Discussion Papers 1532, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    10. Dwenger, Nadja & Fossen, Frank & Simmler, Martin, 2015. "From financial to real economic crisis. Evidence from individual firm-bank relationships in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113000, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Masami Imai & Seitaro Takarabe, 2009. "Bank Integration and Local Credit Cycle:Evidence from Japan," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2009-002, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    12. Bord, Vitaly M. & Ivashina, Victoria & Taliaferro, Ryan D., 2021. "Large banks and small firm lending," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    13. Shai Bernstein & Josh Lerner & Filippo Mezzanotti, 2019. "Private Equity and Financial Fragility during the Crisis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(4), pages 1309-1373.
    14. Iyer, Rajkamal & Da-Rocha-Lopes, Samuel & Peydró, José-Luis & Schoar, Antoinette, 2014. "Interbank Liquidity Crunch and the Firm Credit Crunch: Evidence from the 2007-2009 Crisis," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 27(1), pages 347-372.
    15. Rhys Bidder & John Krainer & Adam Shapiro, 2021. "De-leveraging or de-risking? How banks cope with loss," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 100-127, January.
    16. Krusell, Per & Rudanko, Leena, 2016. "Unions in a frictional labor market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 35-50.
    17. Leila Aghabarari & Andre Guettler & Mahvish Naeem & Bernardus Van Doornik, 2021. "Is there help indeed, if there is help in need? The case of credit unions during the global financial crisis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(3), pages 1215-1233, July.
    18. Daniel Paravisini & Veronica Rappoport & Philipp Schnabl, 2015. "Specialization in Bank Lending: Evidence from Exporting Firms," NBER Working Papers 21800, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Bucă, Andra & Vermeulen, Philip, 2017. "Corporate investment and bank-dependent borrowers during the recent financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 164-180.
    20. Veronica Rappoport & Philipp Schnabl & Daniel Paravisini, 2015. "Comparative Advantage and Specialization in Bank Lending," 2015 Meeting Papers 499, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20704. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.