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Comparative Advantage, Complexity and Volatility

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Pravin Krishna
Andrei A. Levchenko

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Abstract

Less developed countries tend to experience higher output volatility, a fact that is, in part, explained by their specialization in more volatile sectors. This paper proposes theoretical explanations for this pattern of specialization -- with the complexity of the goods playing a central role. Specifically, less developed countries with low levels of human capital, or alternately, with lower institutional ability to enforce contracts, will specialize in less complex goods which are also characterized by higher levels of output volatility. We provide novel empirical evidence that less complex industries are indeed more volatile.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14965.

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Date of creation: May 2009
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14965

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F1 - International Economics - - Trade
F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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  1. Miklós Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007. "Volatility and Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 122(1), pages 243-287, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2007. "Comparative Advantage and the Cross-section of Business Cycles," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(6), pages 1300-1333, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2006. "Globalization and the Gains from Variety," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 121(2), pages 541-585, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 997-1032, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Costinot, Arnaud, 2009. "On the origins of comparative advantage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 255-264, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Kevin Cowan, Alejandro Neut, 2007. "Intermediate Goods, Institutions and Output per Worker," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 420, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  7. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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