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Intermediate Goods, Weak Links, and Superstars: A Theory of Economic Development

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  • Charles I. Jones

Abstract

Per capita income in the richest countries of the world exceeds that in the poorest countries by more than a factor of 50. What explains these enormous differences? This paper returns to several old ideas in development economics and proposes that linkages, complementarity, and superstar effects are at the heart of the explanation. First, linkages between firms through intermediate goods deliver a multiplier similar to the one associated with capital accumulation in a neoclassical growth model. Because the intermediate goods' share of revenue is about 1/2, this multiplier is substantial. Second, just as a chain is only as strong as its weakest link, problems at any point in a production chain can reduce output substantially if inputs enter production in a complementary fashion. Finally, the high elasticity of substitution associated with final consumption delivers a superstar effect: GDP depends disproportionately on the highest levels of productivity in the economy. This paper builds a model with links across sectors, complementary inputs, and highly substitutable consumption, and shows that it can easily generate 50-fold aggregate income differences.

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  • Charles I. Jones, 2008. "Intermediate Goods, Weak Links, and Superstars: A Theory of Economic Development," NBER Working Papers 13834, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13834
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bridgman, Benjamin, 2012. "The rise of vertical specialization trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 133-140.
    3. Krishna, Pravin & Levchenko, Andrei A., 2013. "Comparative advantage, complexity, and volatility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 314-329.
    4. Antoni Estevadeordal & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "Is the Washington Consensus Dead? Growth, Openness, and the Great Liberalization, 1970s–2000s," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1669-1690, December.
    5. Shuhei, Aoki, 2008. "Inverse Ramsey Problem of the Resource Misallocation Effect on Aggregate Productivity," MPRA Paper 7930, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Michael E. Waugh, 2010. "International Trade and Income Differences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2093-2124, December.
    7. Simeon Alder, 2009. "In the Wrong Hands: Complementarities, Resource Allocation, and Aggregate TFP," 2009 Meeting Papers 1265, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Sharma, Chandan, 2011. "Imported intermediary inputs, R&D and Firm's Productivity: Evidence from Indian Manufacturing," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2011 74, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    9. Márton Csillag & Miklós Koren, 2011. "Machines and machinists: Capital-skill complementarity from an international trade perspective," CeFiG Working Papers 13, Center for Firms in the Global Economy, revised 25 Mar 2011.
    10. Susanto Basu & John G. Fernald, 2009. "What do we know (and not know) about potential output?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 91(Jul), pages 187-214.
    11. Arup Mitra & Chandan Sharma, 2020. "Employment and TFP Impact of Technologies in the Developing World: Domestic versus Imported Expertise," IEG Working Papers 410, Institute of Economic Growth.
    12. Benjamin Bridgman, 2013. "International Supply Chains And The Volatility Of Trade," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(4), pages 2110-2124, October.
    13. Engemann, Martina & Lindemann, Henrike, 2013. "Testing the O-ring theory for FDI," Discussion Papers 24/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Ezra Oberfield, 2011. "Business networks, production chains and productivity: A theory of input-output architecture," Working Paper Series WP-2011-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    15. Mateo Hoyos López, 2017. "Trade liberalization and premature deindustrialization in Colombia," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 6(1), pages 1-30, December.
    16. Nico Voigtlaender, 2009. "Many Sectors Meet More Skills: Intersectoral Linkages and the Skill Bias of Technology," 2009 Meeting Papers 1136, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Abbott, Philip & Andersen, Thomas Barnebeck & Tarp, Finn, 2010. "IMF and economic reform in developing countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 17-26, February.
    18. Gladkikh, Y. & Sadikova, D., 2013. "Use of the system of franchising as a means of development (on the example of the regional company LLC «City of Coffee»," Annals of marketing-mba, Department of Marketing, Marketing MBA (RSconsult), vol. 3, November.
    19. di Giovanni, Julian & Levchenko, Andrei A., 2013. "Firm entry, trade, and welfare in Zipf's world," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 283-296.
    20. Antoni Estevadeordal & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "Is the Washington Consensus Dead? Growth, Openness, and the Great Liberalization, 1970s–2000s," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1669-1690, December.
    21. Misch Florian & Gemmell Norman & Kneller Richard, 2010. "Binding Constraints and Second-Best Strategies in Endogenous Growth Models with Public Finance," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 1(2), pages 1-37, December.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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