IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/14871.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Valuing Toxic Assets: An Analysis of CDO Equity

Author

Listed:
  • Francis A. Longstaff
  • Brett Myers

Abstract

How does the market value complex structured-credit securities? This issue is central to understanding the current financial crisis and identifying effective policy measures. We study this issue from a novel perspective by contrasting the valuation of CDO equity with that of bank stocks. This is possible because both CDO equity and bank stock represent levered first-loss residual claims on an underlying portfolio of debt. There are strong similarities in the two types of equity investments. Using an extensive data set of CDX index tranche prices, we find that the discount rates applied by the market to bank and CDO equity are very comparable. In addition, a single factor explains more than 64 percent of the variation in bank and CDO equity returns. Although banks are presumably active credit-portfolio managers, we find that bank alphas are significantly negative during the sample period and comparable in magnitude to those of more-passively-managed CDO equity. Both banks and CDO equity display significant sensitivity to "shadow banking" factors such as counterparty credit risk, the availability of collateralized financing for debt securities, and the liquidity of the derivatives market. A key implication is that we may be able to value "toxic" assets using readily-available stock market information.

Suggested Citation

  • Francis A. Longstaff & Brett Myers, 2009. "Valuing Toxic Assets: An Analysis of CDO Equity," NBER Working Papers 14871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14871
    Note: AP
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w14871.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gunter Franke & Jan Pieter Krahnen, 2007. "Default Risk Sharing between Banks and Markets: The Contribution of Collateralized Debt Obligations," NBER Chapters, in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 603-631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
    3. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    4. Cooper, Ian A & Mello, Antonio S, 1991. "The Default Risk of Swaps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 597-620, June.
    5. Joshua Coval & Jakub Jurek & Erik Stafford, 2009. "The Economics of Structured Finance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 3-25, Winter.
    6. Benmelech, Efraim & Dlugosz, Jennifer, 2009. "The alchemy of CDO credit ratings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(5), pages 617-634, July.
    7. Francis A. Longstaff, 2009. "Portfolio Claustrophobia: Asset Pricing in Markets with Illiquid Assets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1119-1144, September.
    8. Krahnen, Jan-Pieter & Wilde, Christian, 2006. "Risk Transfer with CDOs and Systemic Risk in Banking," CEPR Discussion Papers 5618, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Peter M. DeMarzo, 2005. "The Pooling and Tranching of Securities: A Model of Informed Intermediation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(1), pages 1-35.
    10. Giesecke, Kay, 2004. "Correlated default with incomplete information," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1521-1545, July.
    11. Francis A. Longstaff & Arvind Rajan, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the Pricing of Collateralized Debt Obligations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 529-563, April.
    12. Francis A. Longstaff, 2004. "The Flight-to-Liquidity Premium in U.S. Treasury Bond Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(3), pages 511-526, July.
    13. Robert A. Jarrow & Fan Yu, 2008. "Counterparty Risk and the Pricing of Defaultable Securities," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 20, pages 481-515, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Duffie, Darrell & Huang, Ming, 1996. "Swap Rates and Credit Quality," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 921-949, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mardi Dungey & Gerald Dwyer & Thomas Flavin, 2013. "Systematic and Liquidity Risk in Subprime-Mortgage Backed Securities," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 5-32, February.
    2. Shady Aboul-Enein & Georges Dionne & Nicolas Papageorgiou, 2013. "Performance analysis of a collateralized fund obligation (CFO) equity tranche," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(6), pages 518-553, July.
    3. Christian Laux & Christian Leuz, 2010. "Did Fair-Value Accounting Contribute to the Financial Crisis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 93-118, Winter.
    4. Bikki Jaggi & James P. Winder & Cheng-Few Lee, 2010. "Is There a Future for Fair Value Accounting After the 2008–2009 Financial Crisis?," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(03), pages 469-493.
    5. Priyank Gandhi & Hanno Lustig, 2010. "Size Anomalies in U.S. Bank Stock Returns: A Fiscal Explanation," NBER Working Papers 16553, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Calice, Giovanni, 2011. "The Impact of Collateral Policies on Sovereign CDS Spreads," ECMI Papers 12234, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    2. Arora, Navneet & Gandhi, Priyank & Longstaff, Francis A., 2012. "Counterparty credit risk and the credit default swap market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 280-293.
    3. Marques, Manuel O. & Pinto, João M., 2020. "A comparative analysis of ex ante credit spreads: Structured finance versus straight debt finance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    4. Dan Luo & Dragon Yongjun Tang & Sarah Qian Wang, 2018. "Model specification and collateralized debt obligation (mis)pricing," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(11), pages 1284-1312, November.
    5. Matthias Fleckenstein & Francis A. Longstaff & Hanno Lustig, 2010. "Why Does the Treasury Issue Tips? The Tips-Treasury Bond Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 16358, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Mardi Dungey & Gerald Dwyer & Thomas Flavin, 2013. "Systematic and Liquidity Risk in Subprime-Mortgage Backed Securities," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 5-32, February.
    7. Valentin Haddad & Alan Moreira & Tyler Muir, 2021. "When Selling Becomes Viral: Disruptions in Debt Markets in the COVID-19 Crisis and the Fed’s Response [Funding value adjustments]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5309-5351.
    8. Deuskar, Prachi & Gupta, Anurag & Subrahmanyam, Marti G., 2011. "Liquidity effect in OTC options markets: Premium or discount?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 127-160, February.
    9. Loon, Yee Cheng & Zhong, Zhaodong Ken, 2014. "The impact of central clearing on counterparty risk, liquidity, and trading: Evidence from the credit default swap market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 91-115.
    10. Valentin Haddad & Alan Moreira & Tyler Muir, 2020. "When Selling Becomes Viral: Disruptions in Debt Markets in the COVID-19 Crisis and the Fed’s Response," NBER Working Papers 27168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Deng, Yongheng & Gabriel, Stuart A. & Sanders, Anthony B., 2011. "CDO market implosion and the pricing of subprime mortgage-backed securities," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 68-80, June.
    12. repec:wyi:journl:002109 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Kurt F. Lewis & Francis A. Longstaff & Lubomir Petrasek, 2017. "Asset Mispricing," NBER Working Papers 23231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Pagès, Henri, 2013. "Bank monitoring incentives and optimal ABS," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 30-54.
    15. Duffie, Darrell, 2003. "Intertemporal asset pricing theory," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 639-742, Elsevier.
    16. Paulo P. Alves & M. Ricardo Cunha & Luís K. Pacheco & João M. Pinto, 2022. "How Banks Price Loans for LBOs: an Empirical Analysis of Spread Determinants ," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 163-200, December.
    17. Li, Gang & Zhang, Chu, 2019. "Counterparty credit risk and derivatives pricing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(3), pages 647-668.
    18. Filipović, Damir & Trolle, Anders B., 2013. "The term structure of interbank risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 707-733.
    19. Vayanos, Dimitri & Wang, Jiang, 2013. "Market Liquidity—Theory and Empirical Evidence ," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1289-1361, Elsevier.
    20. Jennie Bai & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein & Jean Helwege, 2012. "On bounding credit event risk premia," Staff Reports 577, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    21. Contessi, Silvio & De Pace, Pierangelo & Guidolin, Massimo, 2014. "How did the financial crisis alter the correlations of U.S. yield spreads?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 362-385.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14871. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.