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War die Finanzkrise vorhersehbar?

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  • Gunther Tichy

Abstract

The Queen's question “Why did no one see it coming” provoked professional economists as well. A fierce discussion arose how to modify and improve theory and models. A survey of the literature reveals that almost a hundred analyses warned against the instability of several mechanism, be it bubbles, oversupply of funds, financial innovations, behaviour of financial institutions or regulation. Most observers predicted a recession, nobody a worldwide crisis. The crisis arose as all these mechanisms worked together and produced a surprise. Surprises appear to be the central elements of deep financial crises. Therefore the chances are odd for forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunther Tichy, 2010. "War die Finanzkrise vorhersehbar?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(4), pages 356-382, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:perwir:v:11:y:2010:i:4:p:356-382
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2516.2010.00344.x
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    2. Gunther Tichy, 2011. "Die Staatsschuldenkrise: Ursachen und Folgen," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 84(12), pages 797-810, December.
    3. Christian Grimm & Jakob Kapeller & Stephan Puehringer, 2017. "Zum Profil der deutschsprachigen Volkswirtschaftslehre: Paradigmatische Ausrichtung und politische Orientierung deutschsprachiger Oekonom_innen (On the current state of German-speaking Economics: Para," ICAE Working Papers 70, Johannes Kepler University, Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy.
    4. Gunther Tichy, 2012. "Zum Versagen der Marktdisziplinierung in der Finanzkrise," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 13, pages 58-80, May.
    5. Gunther Tichy, 2020. "Zur Prognostizierbarkeit von Krisen," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 93(3), pages 193-206, March.
    6. Spahn, Peter, 2013. "Subprime and euro crisis: Should we blame the economists?," FZID Discussion Papers 83-2013, University of Hohenheim, Center for Research on Innovation and Services (FZID).
    7. Gunther Tichy, 2012. "The Sovereign Debt Crisis: Causes and Consequences," Austrian Economic Quarterly, WIFO, vol. 17(2), pages 95-107, May.

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