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Carry Trades and Currency Crashes

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Author Info
Markus K. Brunnermeier
Stefan Nagel
Lasse H. Pedersen

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Abstract

This paper documents that carry traders are subject to crash risk: i.e. exchange rate movements between high-interest-rate and low-interest-rate currencies are negatively skewed. We argue that this negative skewness is due to sudden unwinding of carry trades, which tend to occur in periods in which risk appetite and funding liquidity decrease. Funding liquidity measures predict exchange rate movements, and controlling for liquidity helps explain the uncovered interest-rate puzzle. Carry-trade losses reduce future crash risk, but increase the price of crash risk. We also document excess co-movement among currencies with similar interest rate. Our findings are consistent with a model in which carry traders are subject to funding liquidity constraints.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 14473.

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Date of creation: Nov 2008
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Publication status: published as Markus K. Brunnermeier, Stefan Nagel, Lasse H. Pedersen. "Carry Trades and Currency Crashes," in Daron Acemoglu, Kenneth Rogoff and Michael Woodford, editors, "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008" University of Chicago Press (2008)
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14473

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
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  6. Burnside, A Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2007. "Understanding the Forward Premium Puzzle: A Microstructure Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6399, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Ray C. Fair, 2002. "Events That Shook the Market," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(4), pages 713-732, October. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Markus K Brunnermeier, 2002. "Bubbles and Crashes," FMG Discussion Papers dp401, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    • Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2003. "Bubbles and Crashes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 173-204, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Vistesen, Claus, 2009. "Carry Trade Fundamentals and the Financial Crisis 2007-2010," MPRA Paper 9952, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Tobias Adrian & Erkko Etula & Hyun Song Shin, 2009. "Global liquidity and exchange rates," Staff Reports 361, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  3. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2008. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," NBER Working Papers 14082, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Aidan Corcoran, 2009. "The Determinants of Carry Trade Risk Premia," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp287, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
  5. Thomas Nitschka, 2009. "Momentum in stock market returns, risk premia on foreign currencies and international financial integration," IEW - Working Papers iewwp405, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW. [Downloadable!]
  6. Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "When Everyone Runs for the Exit," NBER Working Papers 15297, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Marie Brière & Bastien Drut, 2009. "The Revenge of Purchasing Power Parity on Carry Trades during Crises," Working Papers CEB 09-013.RS, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Solvay Brussels School of Economics and Management, Centre Emile Bernheim (CEB). [Downloadable!]
  8. Cho-Hoi Hui & Hans Genberg & Tsz-Kin Chung, 2009. "Liquidity, Risk Appetite and Exchange Rate Movements During the Financial Crisis of 2007-2009," Working Papers 0911, Hong Kong Monetary Authority. [Downloadable!]
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