The Decline of Defined Benefit Retirement Plans and Asset Flows

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The Decline of Defined Benefit Retirement Plans and Asset Flows

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James Poterba
Steven Venti
David A. Wise

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Abstract

Demographic change can have an important effect on the stock of assets held in defined benefit pension plans. This paper projects the impact of changes in the age structure of the U.S. population between 2005 and 2040 on the stock of assets held by these plans. It projects the contributions to and withdrawals from these plans. These projections are combined with estimates of the future evolution of assets in 401(k)-like plans to describe the prospective impact of demographic change on the stock of assets in retirement plans. Information on demography-linked changes in asset demand is a critical input to evaluating the potential impact of population aging on asset returns.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12834.

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Date of creation: Jan 2007
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12834

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Pension Funds; Other Private Financial Institutions
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts
J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped
J32 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Nonwage Labor Costs and Benefits; Private Pensions

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2007-01-28 (All new papers)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Alexander Ludwig & Dirk Krüger, 2006. "On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare," MEA discussion paper series 06103, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Dirk Krueger & Alexander Ludwig, 2006. "On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare," CFS Working Paper Series 2006/18, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
- Dirk Krueger & Alexander Ludwig, 2006. "On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare," NBER Working Papers 12453, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Alexander Ludwig & Dirk Krüger, 2006. "On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare," MEA discussion paper series 06103, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
- Krüger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2006. "On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Return to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare," CEPR Discussion Papers 5834, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Ludwig, Alexander & Krüger, Dirk, 2006. "On the Consequences of Demographic Change for Rates of Returns to Capital, and the Distribution of Wealth and Welfare," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-11, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
- Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2007. "On the consequences of demographic change for rates of returns to capital, and the distribution of wealth and welfare," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 49-87, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Author-Name: John Geanakoplos & Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii, 2004. "Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2004-1), pages 241-326. [Downloadable!]
John Beshears & James J. Choi & David Laibson & Brigitte C. Madrian, 2006. "The Importance of Default Options for Retirement Savings Outcomes: Evidence from the United States," NBER Working Papers 12009, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- John Beshears & James J. Choi & David Laibson & Brigitte C. Madrian, 2005. "The importance of default options for retirement saving outcomes: evidence from the United States," CeRP Working Papers 43, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy). [Downloadable!]
John Geanakoplos & Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii, 2002. "Demography and the Long-run Predictability of the Stock Market," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1380R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University, revised Jul 2004. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- John Geanakoplos & Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii, 2002. "Demography and the Long-run Predictability of the Stock Market," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1380, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
Robin Brooks, 2002. "Asset-Market Effects of the Baby Boom and Social-Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 402-406, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

James Poterba & Steven F. Venti & David A. Wise, 2007. "Rise of 401(k) Plans, Lifetime Earnings, and Wealth at Retirement," NBER Working Papers 13091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
James Poterba & Steven Venti & David A. Wise, 2007. "New Estimates of the Future Path of 401(k) Assets," NBER Working Papers 13083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Marianna Brunetti, 2007. "Population ageing, household portfolios and financial asset returns: A survey of the literature," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 07051, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Facoltà di Economia "Marco Biagi". [Downloadable!]

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