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Demography and the Long-run Predictability of the Stock Market

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Author Info
John Geanakoplos () (Cowles Fdn, Yale University)
Michael Magill (Univ of Southern California)
Martine Quinzii (UCLA, Davis)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Stock market price/earnings ratios should be influenced by demography. Since demography is predictable, stock returns should be as well. We provide a simple stochastic OLG model with a cyclical structure that generates cyclical P/E ratios. We calibrate the model to roughly fit the cyclical features of historical P/E ratios.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d13b/d1380.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Cowles Foundation, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1380.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2002
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 2004
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1380

Note: CFP 1099
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Related research
Keywords: Demography Price earnings ratio Returns Efficient markets Baby-boom Savings

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. George M. Constantinides & John B. Donaldson & Rajnish Mehra, 2005. "Junior is Rich: Bequests as Consumption," NBER Working Papers 11122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Saarenheimo , Tuomas, 2005. "Ageing, interest rates, and financial flows," Research Discussion Papers 2/2005, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
  3. Alessandro Citanna & Paolo Siconolfi, 2008. "On the nonexistence of recursive equilibrium in stochastic OLG economies," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 417-437, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Robert F. Martin, 2005. "The baby boom: predictability in house prices and interest rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 847, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. James Poterba & Steven Venti & David A. Wise, 2007. "The Decline of Defined Benefit Retirement Plans and Asset Flows," NBER Working Papers 12834, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  7. Wolfgang Kuhle, 2008. "Demography and Equity Premium," MEA discussion paper series 08157, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
  8. Marianna Brunetti, 2007. "Population ageing, household portfolios and financial asset returns: A survey of the literature," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 07051, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Facoltà di Economia "Marco Biagi". [Downloadable!]
  9. Orazio Attanasio & Sagiri Kitao & Giovanni L. Violante, 2006. "Quantifying the Effects of the Demographic Transition in Developing Economies," Advances in Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 6(1), pages 1298-1298. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. John Geanakoplos, 2008. "Overlapping Generations Models of General Equilibrium," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000002225, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  11. John Geanakoplos, 2008. "Overlapping Generations Models of General Equilibrium," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1663, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  12. Rajnish Mehra & Edwarad C Prescott & Facundo Piguillem, 2007. "Intermediated Quantities and Returns," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000001580, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Stefano DellaVigna & Joshua M. Pollet, 2005. "Attention, Demographics, and the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 11211, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Tuomas Saarenheimo, 2005. "Ageing, interest rates, and financial flows," Labor and Demography 0508015, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  19. Susan A. McDaniel, 2003. "Toward Disentangling Policy Implications of Economic and Demographic Changes in Canada's Aging Population," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 29(4), pages 491-509, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Yoshida, Jiro, 2007. "Technology Shocks and Asset Price Dynamics: The Role of Housing in General Equilibrium," MPRA Paper 6271, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Mar 2008. [Downloadable!]
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