IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/1246.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Effects of Interest Rates on Mortgage Prepayments

Author

Listed:
  • Jerry Green
  • John B. Shoven

Abstract

Three main types of mortgages are fixed interest contracts which automatically fall due on the sale of a dwelling, fixed rate loans which are assumable by a buyer, and floating rate instruments. When interest rates rise, the fall in the economic value of these assets in savings and loan associations' portfolios varies from one form of mortgage to another. For either of the fixed interest rate contracts, the cash flow from the mortgage is constant as long as it has not been prepaid. If the interest rate rises,the homeowner has a nominal capital gain, since his loan is then at a below market interest rate. He would therefore be less likely to prepay. The fall in the savings and loans' net worth arises from two factors: (1) the interest rate differential for mortgages of a fixed duration, and (2) the endogenous lengthening of the duration.This paper is an attempt to measure the dependence of the duration of mortgages on the implicit unrealized capital gain of mortgage holders resulting from interest rate changes. Our estimate is based on a sample of 4,000 mortgages issued in California which were active in 1975. We follow their payment history from 1975 to 1982. Using a Proportional Hazards Model, we estimate the percentage reduction in prepayment probability associated with interest rate changes. Our results indicate that for due-on-sale fixed interest rate mortgages, a sudden increase in the interest rate from 10 to 15 percent would induce a 23 percent loss in the economic value of the mortgage. If the mortgage were assumable,this loss would be 28 percent. Correspondingly, the 6-year average time to repayment of mortgages at a constant interest rate would be lengthened to nine years for due-on-sale mortgages, and 13-1/2 years for assumable ones.

Suggested Citation

  • Jerry Green & John B. Shoven, 1983. "The Effects of Interest Rates on Mortgage Prepayments," NBER Working Papers 1246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1246
    Note: PE
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w1246.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christopher J. Flinn & James J. Heckman, 1982. "Models for the Analysis of Labor Force Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 0857, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Flinn, C. & Heckman, J., 1982. "New methods for analyzing structural models of labor force dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 115-168, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rendon Sílvio, 2006. "Job Search And Asset Accumulation Under Borrowing Constraints ," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(1), pages 233-263, February.
    2. Lisa M. Lynch, 1986. "The Youth Labor Market in the 80s: Determinants of Re-Employment Probabilities for Young Men and Women," NBER Working Papers 2021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. V. Joseph Hotz & Lixin Colin Xu & Marta Tienda & Avner Ahituv, 2002. "Are There Returns To The Wages Of Young Men From Working While In School?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 221-236, May.
    4. Lawrence F. Katz, 1986. "Layoffs, Recall and the Duration of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 1825, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Bloemen, Hans G., 1997. "Job search theory, labour supply and unemployment duration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 305-325, August.
    6. Mariano Bosch & William Maloney, 2006. "Gross Worker Flows in the Presence of Informal Labor Markets. The Mexican Experience 1987-2002," CEP Discussion Papers dp0753, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    7. Flinn, Christopher J & Heckman, James J, 1983. "Are Unemployment and Out of the Labor Force Behaviorally Distinct Labor Force States?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 1(1), pages 28-42, January.
    8. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2001. "Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 55, pages 3381-3460, Elsevier.
    9. repec:eee:labchp:v:2:y:1986:i:c:p:849-919 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Bosch, Mariano & Maloney, William F., 2008. "Cyclical Movements in Unemployment and Informality in Developing Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 3514, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Bosch, Mariano & Maloney, William F., 2007. "Gross Worker Flows in the Presence of Informal Labor Markets: Evidence from Mexico, 1987-2002," IZA Discussion Papers 2864, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Subal Kumbhakar & Christopher Parmeter, 2009. "The effects of match uncertainty and bargaining on labor market outcomes: evidence from firm and worker specific estimates," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 1-14, February.
    13. van den Berg, Gerard J., 1995. "Explicit expressions for the reservation wage path and the unemployment duration density in nonstationary job search models," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 187-198, June.
    14. Robert Kaestner, 1995. "The Effects of Cocaine and Marijuana Use on Marriage and Marital Stability," NBER Working Papers 5038, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Greg Kaplan, 2012. "Moving Back Home: Insurance against Labor Market Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(3), pages 446-512.
    16. Ali Hortaçsu & Chad Syverson, 2004. "Product Differentiation, Search Costs, and Competition in the Mutual Fund Industry: A Case Study of S&P 500 Index Funds," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(2), pages 403-456.
    17. Christopher J. Flinn, 2002. "Interpreting Minimum Wage Effects on Wage Distributions : A Cautionary Tale," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 67-68, pages 309-355.
    18. Abbring, Jaap H. & van den Berg, Gerard J., 2003. "A Simple Procedure for the Evaluation of Treatment Effects on Duration Variables," IZA Discussion Papers 810, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Albanese, Andrea & Picchio, Matteo & Ghirelli, Corinna, 2020. "Timed to Say Goodbye: Does Unemployment Benefit Eligibility Affect Worker Layoffs?," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    20. Christopher Taber & Rune Vejlin, 2020. "Estimation of a Roy/Search/Compensating Differential Model of the Labor Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(3), pages 1031-1069, May.
    21. Olof Åslund & John Östh & Yves Zenou, 2010. "How important is access to jobs? Old question--improved answer," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(3), pages 389-422, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:1246. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.