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From "Hindu Growth" to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition

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Author Info
Dani Rodrik
Arvind Subramanian

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Abstract

Most conventional accounts of India's recent economic performance associate the pick-up in economic growth with the liberalization of 1991. This paper demonstrates that the transition to high growth occured around 1980, a full decade before economic liberalization. We investigate a number of hypotheses about the causes of this growth favorable external environment, fiscal stimulus, trade liberalization, internal liberalization, the green revolution, public investment and find them wanting. We argue that growth was triggered by an attitudinal shift on the part of the national government towards a pro-business (as opposed to pro-liberalization) approach. We provide some evidence that is consistent with this argument. We also find that registered manufacturing built up in previous decades played an important role in influencing the pattern of growth across the Indian states.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10376.

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Date of creation: Mar 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10376

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O4 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
O5 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies

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  7. Angus Deaton & Jean Dreze, 2002. "Poverty and Inequality in India: A Re-Examination," Working Papers 184, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies.. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Timothy Besley & Robin Burgess, 2002. "Can Labour Regulation Hinder Economic Performance? Evidence from India," STICERD - Development Economics Papers 33, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Angus Deaton & Jed Friedman & Vivi Alatas, 2004. "Purchasing power parity exchange rates from household survey data: India and Indonesia," Working Papers 173, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies.. [Downloadable!]
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  13. repec:rus:hseeco:123558 is not listed on IDEAS
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  15. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
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  16. Dani Rodrik, 2003. "Growth Strategies," NBER Working Papers 10050, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Charles R. Hulten & Sylaja Srinivasan, 1999. "Indian Manufacturing Industry: Elephant or Tiger? New Evidence on the Asian Miracle," NBER Working Papers 7441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Montek S. Ahluwalia, 2002. "Economic Reforms in India since 1991: Has Gradualism Worked?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 67-88, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Unel Bulent, 2003. "Productivity Trends in India's Manufacturing Sectors in the Last Two Decades," IMF Working Papers 03/22, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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