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Divergence, big time

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Author Info
Pritchett, Lant

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Abstract

Recently, much attention has been paid in the literature on economic growth to the phenomenon of"conditional convergence,"the tendencies of economies with lower-level incomes to grow faster, conditional on their rate of factor accumulation. The author documents that, regardless of conditional convergence, perhaps the basic fact of modern economic history is massive absolute divergence in the distribution of incomes across countries. Discussions of long-run convergence or divergence has been hindered by the lack of reliable historical estimates of per capita income for poor countries. The author shows that to draw reasonable inferences about whether incomes have converged or diverged does not require historical estimates of per capita income as a plausible lower limit for historical per capita incomes combined with estimates of current income in poor countries places a binding constraint on their historical growth rates. Finally, the author estimates that between 1870 and 1985 the ratio of incomes in the richest and poorest countries increased sixfold, the standard deviation of (natural log) per capita incomes increased by between 60 and 100 percent, and the average income gap between the richest and the poorest countries grew almost ninefold (from $1,500 to over $12,000).

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 1522.

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Date of creation: 31 Oct 1995
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:1522

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Keywords: Economic Theory&Research; Economic Conditions and Volatility; Poverty Impact Evaluation; Public Sector Economics&Finance; Public Institution Analysis&Assessment; Economic Theory&Research; Inequality; Achieving Shared Growth; Governance Indicators; Economic Conditions and Volatility;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1994. "Regional Cohesion: Evidence and Theories of Regional Growth and Convergence," Economics Working Papers 104, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Caselli, Francesco & Esquivel, Gerardo & Lefort, Fernando, 1996. " Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 363-89, September.
  3. Pritchett, Lant, 1996. "Population growth, factor accumulation, and productivity," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1567, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. William Easterly & Michael Kremer & Lant Pritchett & Lawrence H. Summers, 1993. "Good Policy or Good Luck? Country Growth Performance and Temporary Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Danny Quah, 1995. "Empirics for Economic Growth and Convergence," CEP Discussion Papers dp0253, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  7. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew M. Warner, 1995. "Economic Convergence and Economic Policies," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1715, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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  8. Ben-David, Dan & Papell, David, 1995. "Slowdowns and Meltdowns: Post-war Growth Evidence from 74 Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1111, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Hanson, John II, 1991. "Third world incomes before world war I: Further evidence," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 367-379, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Ravallion, Martin & Datt, Gaurav & van de Walle, Dominique, 1991. "Quantifying Absolute Poverty in the Developing World," Review of Income and Wealth, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 345-61, December.
  11. Hanson, John II, 1988. "Third world incomes before World War I: Some comparisons," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 323-336, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "R&D-Based Models of Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(4), pages 759-84, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Rebelo, Sergio, 1991. "Long-Run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 500-521, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Ben-David, Dan, 1993. "Equalizing Exchange: Trade Liberalization and Income Convergence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 653-79, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Sala-i-Martin, X., 1994. "Regional Cohesion: Evidence and the Theories of Regional Growth and Convergence," Papers 716, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
  16. Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-85, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Pritchett, Lant, 1996. "Where has all the education gone?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1581, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  18. Pritchett, Lant & Summers, Lawrence H., 1993. "Wealthier is healthier," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1150, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  19. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. De Long, J Bradford, 1988. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1138-54, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-51, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  22. Shaohua Chen & Datt, Gaurav & Ravallion, Martin, 1993. "Is poverty increasing in the developing world?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1146, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  23. Nuxoll, Daniel A, 1994. "Differences in Relative Prices and International Differences in Growth Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1423-36, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Canova, Fabio & Marcet, Albert, 1995. "The Poor Stay Poor: Non-Convergence Across Countries and Regions," CEPR Discussion Papers 1265, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Loayza, Norman V. & DEC, 1994. "A test of the international convergence hypothesis using panel data," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1333, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  26. Quah, Danny, 1995. "Empirics for Economic Growth and Convergence," CEPR Discussion Papers 1140, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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