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The second moments matter: The response of bank lending behavior to macroeconomic uncertainty

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Author Info
Christopher F. Baum ()
Mustafa Caglayan
Neslihan Ozkan

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Abstract

In this paper we investigate whether macroeconomic uncertainty could distort banks’ allocation of loanable funds. To provide a road- map for our empirical investigation, we present a simple framework which demonstrates that lower uncertainty about the return from lending should lead to a more unequal distribution of lending across banks as managers take advantage of more precise knowledge of different lending opportunities. When bank-specific differences in lending opportunities are harder to predict, we should observe less cross-sectional variation in loan-to-asset ratios. Using a comprehensive U.S. commercial bank data set, we receive support for our hypothesis.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Leicester in its series Discussion Papers in Economics with number 04/13.

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Date of creation: May 2004
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Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:04/13

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Related research
Keywords: Bank lending; financial intermediation; credit; macroeconomic; uncertainty; panel data; ARCH.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2003. "The role of uncertainty in the transmission of monetary policy effects on bank lending," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 561, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 28 Apr 2008. [Downloadable!]
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    Other versions:
  3. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2004. "Re-examining the Transmission of Monetary Policy: What More Do a Million Observations Have to Say," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 45, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa & Ozkan, Neslihan & Talavera, Oleksandr, 2006. "The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on non-financial firms' demand for liquidity," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 289-304. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Caglayan, Mustafa & Usman, Murat, 2000. "Costly signal extraction and profit differentials in oligopolistic markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 359-363, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Baum, Christopher F. & Barkoulas, John T. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 1999. "Long memory or structural breaks: can either explain nonstationary real exchange rates under the current float?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 359-376, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Berger, Allen N. & Udell, Gregory F., 2004. "The institutional memory hypothesis and the procyclicality of bank lending behavior," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 458-495, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Goenka, Aditya, 2003. "Informed trading and the 'leakage' of information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 360-377, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. Evan Gatev & Philip E. Strahan, 2003. "Banks' Advantage in Hedging Liquidity Risk: Theory and Evidence from the Commercial Paper Market," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-01, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Christian Merkl & Stéphanie Stolz, 2006. "Banks’ Regulatory Buffers, Liquidity Networks and Monetary Policy Transmission," Kiel Working Papers 1303, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Mario Quagliariello, 2006. "Macroeconomics Uncertainty and Banks' Lending Decisions: The Case of Italy," Discussion Papers 06/02, Department of Economics, University of York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Christian Calmès & Raymond Théoret, 2009. "The Impact of Banking Deregulation on Canadian Banks Returns," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp022009, Département des sciences administratives, UQO. [Downloadable!]
  4. Christian Calmès & Raymond Théoret, 2008. "Banking Deregulation and Financial Stability : is it Time to re-regulate in Canada ?," RePAd Working Paper Series UQO-DSA-wp042008, Département des sciences administratives, UQO. [Downloadable!]
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