This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Monetary Instability, the Predictability of Prices and the Allocation of Investment: An Empirical Investigation Using UK Panel Data

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Paul Beaudry (University of British Columbia)
Mustafa Caglayan (University of Liverpool)
Fabio Schiantarelli () (Boston College)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

It is often argued that monetary instability reduces the informational content of market signals and thereby hinders the efficient allocation of investment. In this paper we use a signal extraction framework to give empirical content to this idea. In particular, we show why this framework predicts that, as monetary uncertainty decreases, the cross-sectional distribution of investment widens. We then explore this hypothesis using panel data information for UK companies over twenty years. Our data generally support the view that monetary instability may affect investment allocation through its effect on the predictability of prices.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC-P/WP312.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 312..

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Feb 1996
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published, American Economic Review, 91, 648-662, 2001
Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:312

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Boston College, 140 Commonwealth Avenue, Chestnut Hill MA 02467 USA
Phone: 617-552-3670
Fax: +1-617-552-2308
Email:
Web page: http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F Baum).

Related research
Keywords: investment; price expectations; signal extraction;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Garey Ramey & Valerie A. Ramey, 1994. "Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth," NBER Working Papers 4959, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Tommasi, Mariano, 1994. "The Consequences of Price Instability on Search Markets: Toward Understanding the Effects of Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1385-96, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. John Huizinga, 1993. "Inflation uncertainty, relative price uncertainty, and investment in U.S. manufacturing," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 521-557.
  4. William H. Buiter & Marcus Miller, 1981. "The Thatcher Experiment: The First Two Years," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1981-2), pages 315-380. [Downloadable!]
  5. Laurence Ball & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1990. "Inflation and Uncertainty at Long and Short Horizons," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1990-1), pages 215-254. [Downloadable!]
  6. Caballero, Ricardo J & Engel, Eduardo M R A, 1991. "Dynamic (S, s) Economies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1659-86, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1992. "A Fallacy of Composition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1279-92, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-34, June.
  9. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Huizinga, John, 1993. "Inflation Uncertainty, Relative Price Uncertainty, and Investment in U.S. Manufacturing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 521-49, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Bean, Charles R & Symons, James, 1989. "Ten Years of Mrs. T," CEPR Discussion Papers 316, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
    • Bean, C. & Symons, J., 1990. "Ten Years Of Mrs T.," Papers 370, London School of Economics - Centre for Labour Economics.
    • Charles Bean & James Symons, 1989. "Ten Years of Mrs. T," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 13-72 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  12. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1994. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," NBER Working Papers 4789, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Mariano Tommasi, 1994. "Inflation and the Informativeness of Prices Microeconomic Evidence from High Inflation," UCLA Economics Working Papers 718, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  17. Laurence Ball & David Romer, 1993. "Inflation and the Informativeness of Prices," NBER Working Papers 4267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Willem H. Buiter & Marcus Miller, 1983. "Changing the Rules: Economic Consequences of the Thatcher Regime," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(1983-2), pages 305-380. [Downloadable!]
  19. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2006. "Firm Investment and Financial Frictions," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 634, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  2. Mario Quagliariello, 2007. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and banks' lending decisions: The case of Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 615, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan & Christopher F Baum, 2002. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Bank Lending Behavior," Research Papers 2002_02, University of Liverpool Management School. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Christopher F Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2004. "The second moments matter: The response of bank lending behavior to macroeconomic uncertainty," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 172, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Arturo Galindo & Fabio Schiantarelli & Andrew Weiss, 2002. "Does Financial Liberalization Improve the Allocation of Investment?: Micro Evidence from Developing Countries," RES Working Papers 4295, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Mustafa Caglayan & Feng Jiang, 2006. "Reexamining the linkages between inflation and output growth: A bivariate ARFIMA-FIGARCH approach," Working Papers 2006_8, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
  7. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2002. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Non-Financial Firms' Demand for Liquidity," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 552, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 15 Dec 2005. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2004. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Cash Holdings for Non-Financial Firms," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 410, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2002. "The second moments matter: The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the allocation of loanable funds," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 521, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 31 Aug 2008. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2006. "Uncertainty Determinants of Firm Investment," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 646, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 24 Feb 2007. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Pablo Acosta & Andrés Loza, 2005. "Short and long run determinants of private investment in Argentina," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 389-406, November. [Downloadable!]
  12. Arturo Galindo & Fabio Schiantarelli & Andrew Weiss, 2002. "¿Mejora la apertura financiera la asignación de la inversión? Elementos de juicio a nivel micro de países en desarrollo," RES Working Papers 4296, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  13. Christopher F Baum, & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2005. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty onNon-Financial Firms’ Demandf or Liquidity," Working Papers 2005_26, Department of Economics, University of Glasgow. [Downloadable!]
  14. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2003. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Trade Credit for Non-Financial Firms," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 566, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  15. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2006. "On the Sensitivity of Firms' Investment to Cash Flow and Uncertainty," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 638, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 26 Apr 2008. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? RePEc encourages publishers to make their bibliographic data freely available to the public.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-13.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.