Changes in Sex Ratio and Female Marriage Timing: An Empirical Study

In this paper, we have attempted to identify the factors behind the tendency in Japan to marry late. We applied search theory to the process of women's mate search in marriage markets and used having a full-time job as the indicator of being marriageable. We therefore used the number of male full-time workers for every hundred women in the same age and residence region as the variable showing the condition of the marriage markets. Using the estimations from the Cox Proportional Hazard model, we confirmed the following facts: First, when the number of the full-time male workers in labor market increases, women's marriage timing will be brought forward in the marriage market. Female marriage timing is influenced by the number of potential marriage mates. Second, increases in female wage rates relative to male wage rates bring forward female marriage timing. Third, increases in earned income for women bring forward female marriage timing, but the effect is not strong. There is a popular notion that a decline in the benefits of marriage owing to the increase in women's economic independence is the preeminent factor in the recent rise in delayed marriage, but according to the findings here, this is not true.