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A Theory of Bayesian Decision Making

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Edi Karni
Abstract

This paper presents a complete, choice-based, axiomatic Bayesian decision theory. It introduces a new choice set consisting of information-contingent plans for choosing actions and bets and subjective expected utility model with effect-dependent utility functions and action-dependent subjective probabilities which, in conjunction with the updating of the probabilities using Bayes' rule, gives rise to a unique prior and a set of action-dependent posterior probabilities representing the decision maker's prior and posterior beliefs.

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Paper provided by The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Paper Archive with number 550.

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Date of creation: May 2009
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Handle: RePEc:jhu:papers:550

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  1. Machina Mark J. & Schmeidler David, 1995. "Bayes without Bernoulli: Simple Conditions for Probabilistically Sophisticated Choice," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 106-128, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Machina, Mark J & Schmeidler, David, 1992. "A More Robust Definition of Subjective Probability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 745-80, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Karni, Edi, 1996. "Probabilities and Beliefs," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 249-62, November.
  4. Karni, Edi, 2006. "Subjective expected utility theory without states of the world," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 325-342, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Karni, Edi & Schmeidler, David, 1993. "On the Uniqueness of Subjective Probabilities," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 267-77, April.
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  6. Nau, Robert F, 1995. "Coherent Decision Analysis with Inseparable Probabilities and Utilities," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 71-91, January.
  7. Wakker, Peter, 1987. "Subjective probabilities for state dependent continuous utility," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 289-298, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Edi Karni, 2008. "On Optimal Insurance in the Presence of Moral Hazard*," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 1-18, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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