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Foundations of Bayesian Theory Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Edi Karni
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This paper states necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence, uniqueness, and updating according to Bayes?rule, of subjective probabilities representing individuals?beliefs. The approach is preference based, and the result is an axiomatic subjective expected utility model of Bayesian decision making under uncertainty with statedependent preferences. The theory provides foundations for the existence of prior probabilities representing decision makers?beliefs about the likely realization of events and for the updating of these probabilities according to Bayes?rule.
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Paper provided by The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Paper Archive with number
524.
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Date of creation: Aug 2005Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:jhu:papers:524Contact details of provider: Postal: 3400 North Charles Street Baltimore, MD 21218 Phone: 410-516-7601 Fax: 410-516-7600 Web page: http://www.econ.jhu.edu More information through EDIRC
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References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: Skiadas, Costis, 1997.
"Subjective Probability under Additive Aggregation of Conditional Preferences ,"
Journal of Economic Theory ,
Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 242-271, October.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Karni, Edi, 1996.
"Probabilities and Beliefs ,"
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty ,
Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 249-62, November.
Karni, Edi & Schmeidler, David, 1993.
"On the Uniqueness of Subjective Probabilities ,"
Economic Theory ,
Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 267-77, April.
Other versions: Karni, Edi & Schmeidler, David & Vind, Karl, 1983.
"On State Dependent Preferences and Subjective Probabilities ,"
Econometrica ,
Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1021-31, July.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Wakker, Peter, 1987.
"Subjective probabilities for state dependent continuous utility ,"
Mathematical Social Sciences ,
Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 289-298, December.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
E. Karni & Ph. Mongin, 1997.
"On the determination of subjective probability by choices ,"
THEMA Working Papers
97-37, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
Other versions: Karni, Edi, 2003.
" On the Representation of Beliefs by Probabilities ,"
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty ,
Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 17-38, January.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Dreze, Jacques H. & Rustichini, Aldo, 1999.
"Moral hazard and conditional preferences ,"
Journal of Mathematical Economics ,
Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 159-181, March.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Mongin Philippe, 1995.
"Consistent Bayesian Aggregation ,"
Journal of Economic Theory ,
Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 313-351, August.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Itzhak Gilboa & Dov Samet & David Schmeidler, 2004.
"Utilitarian Aggregation of Beliefs and Tastes ,"
Journal of Political Economy ,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 932-938, August.
Other versions: Grant, Simon & Karni, Edi, 2004.
"A theory of quantifiable beliefs ,"
Journal of Mathematical Economics ,
Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 515-546, August.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Karni, Edi, 1993.
"A Definition of Subjective Probabilities with State-Dependent Preferences ,"
Econometrica ,
Econometric Society, vol. 61(1), pages 187-98, January.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Luce, R Duncan & Krantz, David H, 1971.
"Conditional Expected Utility ,"
Econometrica ,
Econometric Society, vol. 39(2), pages 253-71, March.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Costis Skiadas, 1997.
"Conditioning and Aggregation of Preferences ,"
Econometrica ,
Econometric Society, vol. 65(2), pages 347-368, March.
Hylland, Aanund & Zeckhauser, Richard J, 1979.
"The Impossibility of Bayesian Group Decision Making with Separate Aggregation of Beliefs and Values ,"
Econometrica ,
Econometric Society, vol. 47(6), pages 1321-36, November.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full
references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Edi Karni, 2007.
"Bayesian Decision Theory and the Representation of Beliefs ,"
Levine's Bibliography
321307000000000776, UCLA Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions: Thibault Gajdos & Feriel Kandil, 2008.
"The ignorant observer ,"
Social Choice and Welfare ,
Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 193-232, August.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Thibault Gajdos & Feriel Kandil, 2006.
"The Ignorant Observer ,"
Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers)
halshs-00115722_v1, HAL.
[Downloadable!] Thibault Gajdos & Feriel Kandil, 2008.
"The ignorant observer ,"
Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers)
halshs-00177374_v1, HAL.
[Downloadable!] Thibault Gajdos & Feriel Kandil, 2005.
"The ignorant observer ,"
Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques
v06041, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), revised Mar 2006.
[Downloadable!] Eddie Dekel & Barton L. Lipman, 2009.
"How (Not) to Do Decision Theory ,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
814577000000000339, David K. Levine.
[Downloadable!]
Grant, S. & Karni, E., 2002.
"Why does it matter that beliefs and valuations be correctly represented? ,"
Discussion Paper
12, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Grant, Simon & Karni, Edi, 2003.
"Why Does It Matter That Beliefs and Valuations Be Correctly Represented? ,"
Working Papers
2003-02, Rice University, Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!] Simon Grant & Edi Karni, 2005.
"Why Does It Matter That Beliefs And Valuations Be Correctly Represented? ,"
International Economic Review ,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(3), pages 917-934, 08.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Edi Karni, 2005.
"Subjective Expected Utility Theory without States of the World ,"
Economics Working Paper Archive
523, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
[Downloadable!]
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