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Option Value and Dynamic Programming Model Estimates of Social Security Disability Insurance Application Timing

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Author Info
Burkhauser, Richard V. (Cornell University)
Butler, J. S. (University of Kentucky)
Gulcin Gumus () (IZA Bonn)

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Abstract

This paper develops dynamic structural models - an option value model and a dynamic programming model - of the Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) application timing decision. We estimate the time to application from the point at which a health condition first begins to affect the kind or amount of work that a currently employed person can do. We use Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and restricted access Social Security earnings data for estimation. Based on tests of both in-sample and out-of-sample predictive accuracy, our option value model performs better than both our dynamic programming model and our reduced form hazard model.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 941.

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Length: 53 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp941

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Related research
Keywords: Social Security Disability Insurance; Health and Retirement Survey; option value; dynamic programming;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. John Rust & Christopher Phelan, 1997. "How Social Security and Medicare Affect Retirement Behavior in a World of Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(4), pages 781-832, July.
    Other versions:
  2. Haveman, Robert H. & Wolfe, Barbara L., 1984. "Disability transfers and early retirement: a casual relationship?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 47-66, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  6. Daula, Thomas & Moffitt, Robert, 1995. "Estimating Dynamic Models of Quit Behavior: The Case of Military Reenlistment," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(3), pages 499-523, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Stock, James H & Wise, David A, 1990. "Pensions, the Option Value of Work, and Retirement," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(5), pages 1151-80, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock & David A. Wise, 1994. "Retirement Incentives: The Interaction between Employer-Provided Pensions, Social Security, and Retiree Health Benefits," NBER Working Papers 4613, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Kreider, Brent, 2002. "Social Security Disability Insurance: Applications, Awards, and Lifetime Income Flows," Staff General Research Papers 5188, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  14. Bound, John & Waidmann, Timothy, 1992. "Disability Transfers, Self-Reported Health, and the Labor Force Attachment of Older Men: Evidence from the Historical Record," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1393-419, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Bound, John & Burkhauser, Richard V., 1999. "Economic analysis of transfer programs targeted on people with disabilities," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 51, pages 3417-3528 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Kreider, Brent, 2002. "Workers' Applications to Social Insurance Programs when Earnings and Eligibility are Uncertain," Staff General Research Papers 5189, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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  17. Benitez-Silva, Hugo & Buchinsky, Moshe & Chan, Hiu Man & Rust, John & Sheidvasser, Sofia, 1999. "An empirical analysis of the social security disability application, appeal, and award process," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 147-178, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  19. Janice Halpern & Jerry A. Hausman, 1985. "Choice Under Uncertainty: A Model of Applications for the Social Security Disability Insurance Program," NBER Working Papers 1690, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Kreider, Brent & Riphahn, Regina, 2002. "Explaining Applications to the U.S. Disability Program: A Semiparametric Approach," Staff General Research Papers 5184, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  25. Hugo Benitez-Silva & Moshe Buchinsky & Hiu Man Chan & Sofia Cheidvasser & John Rust, 2000. "How Large is the Bias in Self-Reported Disability?," Working Papers 2000-01, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  26. John Bound & Richard Burkhauser & Austin Nichols, 2001. "Tracking the Household Income of SSDI and SSI Applicants," Working Papers wp009, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Burkhauser, Richard V. & Butler, J. S. & Gulcin Gumus, 2003. "Dynamic Modeling of the SSDI Application Timing Decision: The Importance of Policy Variables," IZA Discussion Papers 942, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  2. Rob Euwals & Daniel J. van Vuuren & Ronald P. Wolthoff, 2006. "Early Retirement Behaviour in the Netherlands: Evidence from a Policy Reform," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-021/3, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Hakola, Tuulia, 2002. "Alternative Approaches to Model Withdrawals from the Labour Market – A Literature Review," Working Paper Series 2003:4, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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