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Experimental Evidence on the Nature of the Danish Employment Miracle

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Author Info
Rosholm, Michael () (Aarhus School of Business)

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Abstract

This paper uses a social experiment in labour market policy – providing early and intensive monitoring and programme participation in unemployment spells – to assess the nature of labour market policy effectiveness. The experiment was conducted in two counties in Denmark during the winter of 2005-6. The treatment consisted of a dramatic intensification of labour market policies. The results show that the intensification of labour market policies is highly effective, leading to increases in the exit rate from unemployment ranging from 20 to 40%. When introducing time-varying indicators for the various specific treatments actually prescribed to the unemployed workers, none of those treatments have a positive effect on the exit rate from unemployment, neither during the week in which the activity takes place, nor after the activity is completed. However, when the estimated risk of participating in an activity is included as an explanatory variable, it removes the difference in job-finding rates between treatment and control groups completely in one of the counties, and reduces it dramatically and renders it insignificant in the other county. The interpretation we attach to these results is the following; since individual treatments do not appear to be effective per se, but the risk of treatment is, it must be that the intensification of the policy regime increases the job-finding rate of unemployed workers.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 3620.

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Date of creation: Jul 2008
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Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3620

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Related research
Keywords: treatment effect labour market policy regime social experiment threat effect duration model

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings
J68 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Public Policy

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bruno, CREPON & Muriel, DEJEMEPPE & Marc, GURGAND, 2005. "Counseling the unemployed : does it lower unemployment duration and recurrence ?," Discussion Papers 2005034, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Jensen, Peter & Rosholm, Michael & Svarer, Michael, 2003. "The response of youth unemployment to benefits, incentives, and sanctions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 301-316, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Geerdsen, Lars Pico & Holm, Anders, 2007. "Duration of UI periods and the perceived threat effect from labour market programmes," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 639-652, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Jochen Kluve, 2006. "The Effectiveness of European Active Labor Market Policy," RWI Discussion Papers 0037, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung. [Downloadable!]
  5. Bruce D. Meyer, 1995. "Lessons from the U.S. Unemployment Insurance Experiments," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 33(1), pages 91-131, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Bart Cockx & Muriel Dejemeppe, 2007. "Is the Notification of Monitoring a Threat to the Unemployed? A Regression Discontinuity Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Dolton, Peter & O'Neill, Donal, 1996. "Unemployment Duration and the Restart Effect: Some Experimental Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(435), pages 387-400, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Jaap Abbring & Gerard van den Berg, 2005. "Social experiments and instrumental variables with duration outcomes," IFS Working Papers W05/19, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Jochen Kluve & Christoph M. Schmidt, 2002. "Can training and employment subsidies combat European unemployment?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 17(35), pages 409-448, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Martin, John P. & Grubb, David, 2001. "What works and for whom: a review of OECD countries' experiences with active labour market policies," Working Paper Series 2001:14, IFAU - Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation. [Downloadable!]
  11. Dan A. Black & Jeffrey A. Smith & Mark C. Berger & Brett J. Noel, 2003. "Is the Threat of Reemployment Services More Effective Than the Services Themselves? Evidence from Random Assignment in the UI System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1313-1327, September. [Downloadable!]
  12. Jochen Kluve, 2006. "The Effectiveness of European Active Labor Market Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 2018, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  13. Hägglund, Pathric, 2006. "Are there pre-programme effects of Swedish active labour market policies? Evidence from three randomised experiments," Working Paper Series 2006:2, IFAU - Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation. [Downloadable!]
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