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Systemic and Idiosyncratic Sovereign Debt Crises

Author

Listed:
  • Graciela Laura Kaminsky

    (George Washington University)

  • Pablo Vega-Garcia

    (George Washington University)

Abstract

The theoretical literature on sovereign defaults has focused on adverse shocks to debtors’ economies, suggesting that defaults are of an idiosyncratic nature. Still, sovereign debt crises are also of a systemic nature, clustered around panics in the financial center such as the European Sovereign Debt Crisis in the aftermath of the U.S. Subprime Crisis in 2008. Crises in the financial centers are rare disasters and thus, their effects on the periphery can only be captured by examining long episodes. This paper examines sovereign defaults from 1820 to the Great Depression, with a focus on Latin America. We find that 63% of the crises are of a systemic nature. These crises are different. Both the international collapse of liquidity and the growth slowdown in the financial centers are at their core. These global shocks trigger longer default spells and larger investors’ losses.

Suggested Citation

  • Graciela Laura Kaminsky & Pablo Vega-Garcia, 2016. "Systemic and Idiosyncratic Sovereign Debt Crises," Working Papers 2016-27, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
  • Handle: RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2016-27
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    File URL: https://www.gwu.edu/~iiep/assets/docs/papers/2016WP/KaminskyIIEPWP2016-27.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2016. "Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 574-580, May.
    3. Aloisio Araujo & Marcia Leon & Rafael Santos, 2017. "Bargained haircuts and debt policy implications," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 64(4), pages 635-656, December.
    4. Angélica Domínguez-Cardoza & Adelina Garamow & Josefin Meyer, 2022. "Global Commodity Markets and Sovereign Risk across 150 Years," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2020, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Antonio Bassanetti & Carlo Cottarelli & Andrea F Presbitero, 2019. "Lost and found: market access and public debt dynamics," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(2), pages 445-471.
    6. Raffaele Marchi & Alessandro Moro, 2024. "Forecasting Fiscal Crises in Emerging Markets and Low-Income Countries with Machine Learning Models," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 189-213, February.
    7. Josefin Meyer & Carmen M Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2022. "Sovereign Bonds Since Waterloo," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 137(3), pages 1615-1680.
    8. Kaminsky, Graciela, 2017. "The Center and the Periphery: Two Hundred Years of International Borrowing Cycles," MPRA Paper 82125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Eberhardt, Markus, 2018. "(At Least) Four Theories for Sovereign Default," CEPR Discussion Papers 13084, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Tamás Kristóf, 2021. "Sovereign Default Forecasting in the Era of the COVID-19 Crisis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-24, October.
    11. Tamon Asonuma & Hyungseok Joo, 2021. "Public Capital and Fiscal Constraint in Sovereign Debt Crises," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0621, School of Economics, University of Surrey.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign debt crises; debt restructuring; defaults; default spells; debt reduction rates; debt sustainability; liquidity crises; systemic and idiosyncratic crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance

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