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Structural change in the mortgage market and the propensity to refinance

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Author Info
Paul Bennett
Richard Peach
Stavros Peristiani

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Abstract

We hypothesize that the intrinsic benefit required to trigger a refinancing has become smaller due to a combination of technological, regulatory, and structural changes that have made mortgage origination more competitive and more efficient. To test this hypothesis, we estimate an empirical hazard model of loan survival for two subperiods, using a database that allows us to carefully control for homeowners' credit ratings, equity, loan size, and measurable transaction costs. Our findings strongly confirm that credit ratings and home equity have significant effects on the refinancing probability. In addition, we provide evidence that homeowners postpone refinancing in the face of increased interest rate volatility, consistent with option value theory. Finally, our results clearly support the hypothesis that structural change in the mortgage market has increased homeowners' propensity to refinance.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 45.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:45

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Keywords: Mortgages;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Andrew Caplin & Charles Freeman & Joseph Tracy, 1993. "Collateral Damage: How Refinancing Constraints Exacerbate Regional Recessions," NBER Working Papers 4531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Glaeser, Edward L. & Kallal, Hedi D., 1997. "Thin Markets, Asymmetric Information, and Mortgage-Backed Securities," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 64-86, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Stavros Peristiani & Paul Bennett & Gordon Monsen & Richard Peach & Jonathan Raiff, 1997. "Credit, equity, and mortgage refinancings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 83-99. [Downloadable!]
  4. Wayne Archer & David C. Ling & Gary A. McGill, 1995. "The Effect of Income and Collateral Constraints on Residential Mortgage Terminations," NBER Working Papers 5180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Green, Jerry & Shoven, John B, 1986. "The Effects of Interest Rates on Mortgage Prepayments," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 41-59, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. John C. Weicher, 1994. "The new structure of the housing finance system," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 47-65. [Downloadable!]
  7. Giliberto, S Michael & Thibodeau, Thomas G, 1989. "Modeling Conventional Residential Mortgage Refinancings," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 285-99, December.
  8. S. Peristiani & P. Bennett & G. Monsen & R. Peach & J. Raiff, 1996. "Effects of household creditworthiness on mortgage refinancings," Research Paper 9622, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  9. Patric H. Hendershott & Herbert M. Kaufman (ary), 1992. "The market for home mortgage credit: recent changes and future prospects," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, pages 99-127.
  10. Cunningham, Donald F & Capone, Charles A, Jr, 1990. " The Relative Termination Experience of Adjustable to Fixed-Rate Mortgages," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1687-1703, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Follain, James R & Scott, Louis O & Yang, T L Tyler, 1992. "Microfoundations of a Mortgage Prepayment Function," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 197-217, June.
  12. Bradley, Michael G & Gabriel, Stuart A & Wohar, Mark E, 1995. "The Thrift Crisis, Mortgage-Credit Intermediation, and Housing Activity," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 476-97, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Archer, Wayne R. & Ling, David C. & McGill, Gary A., 1996. "The effect of income and collateral constraints on residential mortgage terminations," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 235-261, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals, and Misperceptions," NBER Working Papers 11643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Vladimir Klyuev & Paul S. Mills, 2006. "Is Housing Wealth an 'ATM'? The Relationship Between Household Wealth, Home Equity Withdrawal, and Saving Rates," IMF Working Papers 06/162, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ben S. Bernanke, 2007. "Housing, housing finance, and monetary policy: a symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City: opening remarks," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-20. [Downloadable!]
  4. Fang Yang, 2006. "Consumption along the life cycle: how different is housing?," Working Papers 635, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Calza, Alessandro & Monacelli, Tommaso & Stracca, Livio, 2007. "Mortgage Markets, Collateral Constraints, and Monetary Policy: Do Institutional Factors Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6231, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo & John Muellbauer, . "Consumer credit conditions in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 314, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  7. Sumit Agarwal & John C. Driscoll & David Laibson, 2007. "Optimal Mortgage Refinancing: A Closed Form Solution," NBER Working Papers 13487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Joseph Gyourko & Joseph Tracy, 2003. "Using home maintenance and repairs to smooth variable earnings," Staff Reports 168, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Amir E. Khandani & Andrew W. Lo & Robert C. Merton, 2009. "Systemic Risk and the Refinancing Ratchet Effect," NBER Working Papers 15362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Fernando Nieto, 2007. "The determinants of household credit in Spain," Banco de España Working Papers 0716, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  11. Geetesh Bhardwaj & Rajdeep Sengupta, 2008. "Did prepayments sustain the subprime market?," Working Papers 2008-039, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  12. Margaret M. McConnell & Richard W. Peach & Alex Al-Haschimi, 2003. "After the refinancing boom: will consumers scale back their spending?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec. [Downloadable!]
  13. Markus Christen & Ruskin Morgan, 2005. "Keeping Up With the Joneses: Analyzing the Effect of Income Inequality on Consumer Borrowing," Quantitative Marketing and Economics, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 145-173, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Toshio Kimura & Naoki Makimoto, 2008. "Optimal Mortgage Refinancing with Regime Switches," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 47-65, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Wenli Li & Rui Yao, 2005. "The life-cycle effects of house price changes," Working Papers 05-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  16. John N. Muellbauer, 2007. "Housing, credit and consumer expenditure," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 267- 334. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Housing and the monetary transmission mechanism," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 359-413. [Downloadable!]
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