This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

On the need for a new approach to analyzing monetary policy

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Andrew Atkeson
Patrick J. Kehoe

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

We present a pricing kernel that summarizes well the main features of the dynamics of interest rates and risk in postwar U.S. data and use it to uncover how the pricing kernel has moved with the short rate. Our findings imply that standard monetary models miss an essential link between the central bank instrument and the economic activity that monetary policy is intended to affect, and thus we call for a new approach to monetary policy analysis. We sketch a new approach using an economic model based on our pricing kernel. The model incorporates the key relationships between policy and risk movements in an unconventional way: the central bank’s policy changes are viewed as primarily intended to compensate for exogenous business cycle fluctuations in risk that threaten to push inflation off target. This model, while an improvement over standard models, is considered just a starting point for their revision.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/SR/SR412.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 412.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:412

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 90 Hennepin Avenue, P.O. Box 291, Minneapolis, MN 55480-0291
Phone: (612) 204-5000
Web page: http://minneapolisfed.org/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Email:
Web: http://www.minneapolisfed.org/pubs/

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Diane Rosenberger).

Related research
Keywords: Asset pricing ; Risk ; Taylor's rule;

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Harald Uhlig, 2007. "Explaining Asset Prices with External Habits and Wage Rigidities in a DSGE Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 239-243, May. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Jonathan H. Wright, 2006. "The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-28, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Cogley, Timothy W. & Sbordone, Argia M., 2005. "A Search for a Structural Phillips Curve," Working Papers 05-10, University of California at Davis, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick Kehoe, 2007. "Time-Varying Risk, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates in General Equilibrium," Working Papers CAS_RN_2007_6, Laboratory for Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Andrew Ang & Sen Dong & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "No-arbitrage Taylor rules," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Cumby, Robert E. & Diba, Behzad T., 2007. "Euler equations and money market interest rates: A challenge for monetary policy models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1863-1881, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2005. "New-Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," NBER Working Papers 11340, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006. "The Bond Yield "Conundrum" from a Macro-Finance Perspective," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 24(S1), pages 83-109, December. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. David K. Backus, 2001. "Affine Term Structure Models and the Forward Premium Anomaly," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 279-304, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 3-33, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Gallmeyer, Michael F. & Hollifield, Burton & Zin, Stanley E., 2005. "Taylor rules, McCallum rules and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 921-950, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  14. Backus, David & Foresi, Silverio & Mozumdar, Abon & Wu, Liuren, 2001. "Predictable changes in yields and forward rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(3), pages 281-311, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Peter N. Ireland, 2007. "Changes in the Federal Reserve's Inflation Target: Causes and Consequences," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 1851-1882, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Singleton, Kenneth J, 1980. "Expectations Models of the Term Structure and Implied Variance Bounds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1159-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Athanasios Orphanides, 2002. "Monetary policy rules and the Great Inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-8, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. Wachter, Jessica A., 2006. "A consumption-based model of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 365-399, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP-01-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  20. Thomas J. Sargent, 2008. "Evolution and Intelligent Design," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 5-37, March. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  21. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Michele Boldrin & Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2000. "Habit persistence, asset returns and the business cycle," Staff Report 280, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  23. Backus, David K & Zin, Stanley E, 1993. "Long-Memory Inflation Uncertainty: Evidence from the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 681-700, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  24. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2002. "Money, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates with Endogenously Segmented Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 73-112, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  25. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2009. "New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for Policy Analysis," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 242-66, January. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  26. Tao Wu & Glenn Rudebusch, 2004. "A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy, and the Economy," 2004 Meeting Papers 104, Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  27. Eugene F. Fama, 2006. "The Behavior of Interest Rates," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 359-379. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1509, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  30. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Risk Premia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 138-160, March. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  31. Bennett T. McCallum, 1994. "Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 4938, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  32. Michael F. Gallmeyer & Burton Hollifield & Francisco Palomino & Stanley E. Zin, 2007. "Arbitrage-Free Bond Pricing with Dynamic Macroeconomic Models," NBER Working Papers 13245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  33. Daron Acemoglu & Kenneth Rogoff & Michael Woodford, 2009. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number acem08-1, Summer.
  34. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P. A., 2001. "Shifting endpoints in the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 613-652, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  35. LeRoy, Stephen F & Porter, Richard D, 1981. "The Present-Value Relation: Tests Based on Implied Variance Bounds," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(3), pages 555-74, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  36. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C, 1996. "Monetary Policy Shifts and Long-Term Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 111(4), pages 1183-1209, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  37. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2006. "Equilibrium Yield Curves," NBER Working Papers 12609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  38. Giorgio Primiceri, 2005. "Why Inflation Rose and Fell: Policymakers' Beliefs and US Postwar Stabilization Policy," NBER Working Papers 11147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  39. Dai, Qiang & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2002. "Expectation puzzles, time-varying risk premia, and affine models of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 415-441, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Carlos Esteban Posada & Jorge Andrés Tamayo C., 2009. "La crisis reciente de Estados Unidos (2007-2008): redescubriendo la importancia del mercado de “fondos prestables"," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 005388, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2008. "New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for Policy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 14313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Sustek, Roman, 2009. "Monetary Business Cycle Accounting," MPRA Paper 17518, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? About 2700 working paper series are listed on RePEc.

This page was last updated on 2009-10-29.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.