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Some simple tests of the globalization and inflation hypothesis

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Author Info
Jane Ihrig
Steven B. Kamin
Deborah Lindner
Jaime Marquez
Abstract

This paper evaluates the hypothesis that globalization has increased the role of international factors and decreased the role of domestic factors in the inflation process in industrial economies. Toward that end, we estimate standard Phillips curve inflation equations for 11 industrial countries and use these estimates to test several predictions of the globalization and inflation hypothesis. Our results provide little support for that hypothesis. First, the estimated effect of foreign output gaps on domestic consumer price inflation is generally insignificant and often of the wrong sign. Second, we find no evidence that the trend decline in the sensitivity of inflation to the domestic output gap observed in many countries owes to globalization. Finally, and most surprisingly, our econometric results indicate no increase over time in the responsiveness of inflation to import prices for most countries. However, even though we find no evidence that globalization is affecting the parameters of the inflation process, globalization may be helping to stabilize real GDP and hence inflation. Over time, the volatility of real GDP growth has declined by more than the volatility of domestic demand, suggesting that net exports increasingly are acting to buffer output from fluctuations in domestic demand.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 891.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:891

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Keywords: Inflation (Finance) ; Globalization;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
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  8. Christopher Gust & Jaime Marquez, 2002. "International comparisons of productivity growth: the role of information technology and regulatory practices," International Finance Discussion Papers 727, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  11. Charles Bean, 2007. "Globalisation and Inflation," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, PO Box 69, Henley-on-Thames, Oxfordshire, United Kingdom, RG9 1GB, vol. 8(1), pages 57-73, January. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Javier Andrés & Eva Ortega & Javier Vallés, 2003. "Market structure and inflation differentials in the European Monetary Union," Banco de España Working Papers 0301, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Cetorelli, Nicola & Goldberg, Linda S., 2008. "Banking globalization, monetary transmission and the lending channel," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,21, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Michael Woodford, 2007. "Globalization and monetary control," Discussion Papers 0607-17, Columbia University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Ashoka Mody & Franziska Ohnsorge, 2007. "Can Domestic Policies Influence Inflation?," IMF Working Papers 07/257, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Dees, Stephane & Pesaran, Hashem & Smith, L. Vanessa & Smith, Ron P., 2008. "Identification of New Keynesian Phillips Curves from a Global Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 3298, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Fabio Milani, 2009. "The Effect of Global Output on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations: A Structural Estimation," Working Papers 080920, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jean Boivin & Marc Giannoni, 2008. "Global Forces and Monetary Policy Effectiveness," NBER Working Papers 13736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Denise Côté & Carlos de Resende, 2008. "Globalization and Inflation: The Role of China," Working Papers 08-35, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  8. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2008. "Globalization, Macroeconomic Performance, and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Alberto Musso & Livio Stracca & Dick van Dijk, 2007. "Instability and nonlinearity in the Euro area Phillips curve," Working Paper Series 811, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2008. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through And Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13889, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Calani, Mauricio, 2007. "Testing Globalization-Disinflation Hypothesis," MPRA Paper 4787, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Sep 2007. [Downloadable!]
  12. Alessandro Calza, 2008. "Globalisation, domestic inflation and the global output gaps: evidence from the Euro era," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 13, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  13. Eickmeier, Sandra & Moll, Katharina, 2008. "The global dimension of inflation: evidence from factor-augmented Phillips curves," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,16, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  14. Sandra Eickmeier & Katharina Moll, 2009. "The global dimension of inflation - evidence from factor-augmented Phillips curves," Working Paper Series 1011, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  15. Adamcik, Santiago, 2008. "Efectos de la Globalizacion sobre la Inflacion y la politica Monetaria Domestica
    [Globalization Effect on both Inflation and Domestic Monetary Policy]    ," MPRA Paper 9242, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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