IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgif/967.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Biofuels impact on crop and food prices: using an interactive spreadsheet

Author

Listed:

Abstract

This paper examines the effect that biofuels production has had on commodity and global food prices. The innovative contribution of this paper is the interactive spreadsheet that allows the reader to choose the assumptions behind the estimates. By allowing the reader to choose the country, time period, supply and demand elasticities, and the size of indirect effects we explicitly illustrate the sensitivity of the estimated effect of biofuels production on prices. Our best estimates suggest that the increase in biofuels production over the past two years has had a sizeable impact on corn, sugar, barley and soybean prices, but a much smaller impact on global food prices. ; Over the past two years (ending June 2008), we estimate that the increase in worldwide biofuels production pushed up corn, soybean and sugar prices by 27, 21 and 12 percentage points respectively. The countries that account for most of the upward pressure on these prices are the United States and Brazil. Our best estimates suggest that the increase in U.S. biofuels production (ethanol and biodiesel) pushed up corn prices by more than 22 percentage points and soybean prices (soybeans and soybean oil) by more than 15 percentage points, while the increase in EU biofuels production pushed corn and soybean prices up around 3 percentage points. Brazil's increase in sugar-based ethanol production accounts for the entire rise in the price of sugar. ; Although biofuels had a noticeable impact on individual crop prices, they had a much smaller impact on global food prices. Our best estimate suggests that the increase in worldwide biofuels production over the past two years accounts for just over 12 percent of the rise in the IMF's food price index. The increase in U.S. biofuels production accounts for roughly 60 percent of this effect, while Brazil accounts for 14 percent and the EU accounts for 15 percent. The key take-away point is that nearly 90 percent of the rise in global food prices comes from factors other than biofuels.

Suggested Citation

  • Scott L. Baier & Mark Clements & Charles W. Griffiths & Jane E. Ihrig, 2009. "Biofuels impact on crop and food prices: using an interactive spreadsheet," International Finance Discussion Papers 967, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:967
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2009/967/default.htm
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2009/967/ifdp967.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Condon, Nicole & Klemick, Heather & Wolverton, Ann, 2015. "Impacts of ethanol policy on corn prices: A review and meta-analysis of recent evidence," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 63-73.
    2. Phil Briggs & Carly Harker & Tim Ng & Aidan Yao, 2011. "Fluctuations in the international prices of oil, dairy products, beef and lamb between 2000 and 2008: A review of market-specific demand and supply factors," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2011/02, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    3. Na Hao & Peter Pedroni & Gregory Colson & Michael Wetzstein, 2017. "The linkage between the U.S. ethanol market and developing countries’ maize prices: a panel SVAR analysis," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 48(5), pages 629-638, September.
    4. Devadoss, Stephen & Gibson, Mark J. & Luckstead, Jeff, 2016. "The Impact of Agricultural Subsidies on the Corn Market with Farm Heterogeneity and Endogenous Entry and Exit," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(3), pages 1-20, September.
    5. Chiang, Shu-Mei & Chen, Chun-Da & Huang, Chien-Ming, 2019. "Analyzing the impacts of foreign exchange and oil price on biofuel commodity futures," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 37-48.
    6. Goetz, Ariane & German, Laura & Hunsberger, Carol & Schmidt, Oscar, 2017. "Do no harm? Risk perceptions in national bioenergy policies and actual mitigation performance," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 776-790.
    7. Janda, Karel & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Zilberman, David, "undated". "Biofuels: review of policies and impacts," CUDARE Working Papers 120415, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    8. Ziolkowska, Jadwiga R. & Simon, Leo, 2014. "Recent developments and prospects for algae-based fuels in the US," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 847-853.
    9. Seo, Yeong hwan & Han, Shin & Han, Jong-In, 2014. "Economic biodiesel production using algal residue as substrate of lipid producing yeast Cryptococcus curvatus," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 473-478.
    10. Duarte Souza Alvarenga Santos, Nathália & Rückert Roso, Vinícius & Teixeira Malaquias, Augusto César & Coelho Baêta, José Guilherme, 2021. "Internal combustion engines and biofuels: Examining why this robust combination should not be ignored for future sustainable transportation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    11. Chen, Mei-Hsiu, 2010. "Understanding world metals prices--Returns, volatility and diversification," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 127-140, September.
    12. Irene Scher & Jonathan Koomey, 2011. "Is accurate forecasting of economic systems possible?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 104(3), pages 473-479, February.
    13. A.S. Bhullar & Balbinder Deo, 2012. "Issues in Transport Biofuels Production: A Review of the Global Experience," Millennial Asia, , vol. 3(1), pages 71-74, January.
    14. Timilsina, Govinda R. & Shrestha, Ashish, 2010. "Biofuels : markets, targets and impacts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5364, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Prices; Farm produce;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:967. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ryan Wolfslayer ; Keisha Fournillier (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.