IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jimfin/v96y2019icp37-48.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analyzing the impacts of foreign exchange and oil price on biofuel commodity futures

Author

Listed:
  • Chiang, Shu-Mei
  • Chen, Chun-Da
  • Huang, Chien-Ming

Abstract

This paper employs an ARJI-trend model that combines the autoregressive jump intensity (ARJI) and component models to analyze the effects of the U.S. dollar index and oil prices on the dynamic properties of biofuel-related commodity futures. The results show that the ARJI-trend model not only provides a better fit for the data on the volatility dynamics of corn, soybean, and wheat futures, but also performs better in terms of out-of-sample forecasting. The U.S. dollar index and oil prices both generate significant impacts on the returns of the futures. Since the coexistence of permanent component, transitory component, and time-varying jumps are observed in those futures, the ARJI-trend model is beneficial for acquiring a better understanding of the differential attributes among corn, soybean, and wheat futures.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiang, Shu-Mei & Chen, Chun-Da & Huang, Chien-Ming, 2019. "Analyzing the impacts of foreign exchange and oil price on biofuel commodity futures," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 37-48.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:96:y:2019:i:c:p:37-48
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.04.007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261560619302396
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.04.007?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Scott L. Baier & Mark Clements & Charles W. Griffiths & Jane E. Ihrig, 2009. "Biofuels impact on crop and food prices: using an interactive spreadsheet," International Finance Discussion Papers 967, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Daal, Elton & Naka, Atsuyuki & Yu, Jung-Suk, 2007. "Volatility clustering, leverage effects, and jump dynamics in the US and emerging Asian equity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 2751-2769, September.
    3. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2010. "How to Understand High Food Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 398-425, June.
    4. Henghsiu Tsai & K. S. Chan, 2005. "Quasi‐Maximum Likelihood Estimation for a Class of Continuous‐time Long‐memory Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 691-713, September.
    5. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 2002. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 69-87, January.
    6. Manuel A. Hernandez & Raul Ibarra & Danilo R. Trupkin, 2014. "How far do shocks move across borders? Examining volatility transmission in major agricultural futures markets," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 41(2), pages 301-325.
    7. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    8. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Menla Ali, Faek & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2017. "International portfolio flows and exchange rate volatility in emerging Asian markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-15.
    9. Shu-Mei Chiang & Huimin Chung & Chien-Ming Huang, 2012. "Volatility behavior, information efficiency and risk in the S&P 500 index markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(9), pages 1421-1437, December.
    10. Angus Deaton & Guy Laroque, 1992. "On the Behaviour of Commodity Prices," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(1), pages 1-23.
    11. Bodart, Vincent & Candelon, Bertrand & Carpantier, Jean-Francois, 2015. "Real exchanges rates, commodity prices and structural factors in developing countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 264-284.
    12. Chan, Wing H & Maheu, John M, 2002. "Conditional Jump Dynamics in Stock Market Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 377-389, July.
    13. Henghsiu Tsai & K. S. Chan, 2005. "Maximum likelihood estimation of linear continuous time long memory processes with discrete time data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(5), pages 703-716, November.
    14. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2014. "Volatility transmission in agricultural futures markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 541-546.
    15. Li, Guangzhong & Zhu, Jiaqing & Li, Jie, 2016. "Understanding bilateral exchange rate risks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 103-129.
    16. Kim, Harold Y. & Mei, Jianping P., 2001. "What makes the stock market jump? An analysis of political risk on Hong Kong stock returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 1003-1016, December.
    17. Harri, Ardian & Nalley, Lanier & Hudson, Darren, 2009. "The Relationship between Oil, Exchange Rates, and Commodity Prices," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 501-510, August.
    18. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2004. "News Arrival, Jump Dynamics, and Volatility Components for Individual Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 755-793, April.
    19. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 1994. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models: Comments: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 413-417, October.
    20. Marco Haase & Yvonne Seiler Zimmermann & Heinz Zimmermann, 2019. "Permanent and transitory price shocks in commodity futures markets and their relation to speculation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1359-1382, April.
    21. Engle, Robert F. & White (the late), Halbert (ed.), 1999. "Cointegration, Causality, and Forecasting: Festschrift in Honour of Clive W. J. Granger," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296836.
    22. Franses, Philip Hans, 2016. "A note on the Mean Absolute Scaled Error," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 20-22.
    23. Chien-Liang Chiu & Mingchih Lee & Chun-Da Chen, 2005. "Removal of an investment restriction: the 'B' share experience from China's stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 273-285.
    24. Steen Koekebakker & Gudbrand Lien, 2004. "Volatility and Price Jumps in Agricultural Futures Prices—Evidence from Wheat Options," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(4), pages 1018-1031.
    25. Zhang, Zibin & Lohr, Luanne & Escalante, Cesar & Wetzstein, Michael, 2010. "Food versus fuel: What do prices tell us?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 445-451, January.
    26. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2009. "Short-run deviations and time-varying hedge ratios: Evidence from agricultural futures markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 58-65, March.
    27. Esmaeili, Abdoulkarim & Shokoohi, Zainab, 2011. "Assessing the effect of oil price on world food prices: Application of principal component analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 1022-1025, February.
    28. Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur, 2012. "Oil price, agricultural commodity prices, and the dollar: A panel cointegration and causality analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1098-1104.
    29. Avalos, Fernando, 2014. "Do oil prices drive food prices? The tale of a structural break," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 253-271.
    30. Hamid Baghestani & Cassia Marchon, 2012. "Testing rationality of foreign exchange forecasts under flexible loss: survey evidence from Brazil," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(11), pages 1081-1084, July.
    31. Andersen, Torben G, 1996. "Return Volatility and Trading Volume: An Information Flow Interpretation of Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 169-204, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anupam Dutta & Kakali Kanjilal & Sajal Ghosh & Donghyun Park & Gazi Salah Uddin, 2023. "Impact of crude oil volatility jumps on sustainable investments: Evidence from India," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(10), pages 1450-1468, October.
    2. Sun-Yong Choi & Changsoo Hong, 2020. "Relationship between uncertainty in the oil and stock markets before and after the shale gas revolution: Evidence from the OVX, VIX, and VKOSPI volatility indices," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-26, May.
    3. Chen, Chun-Da & Chiang, Shu-Mei & Huang, Tze-Chin, 2020. "The contagion effects of volatility indices across the U.S. and Europe," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    4. Chen, Chun-Da & Su, Ching-Hui (Joan) & Chen, Ming-Hsiang, 2022. "Understanding how ESG-focused airlines reduce the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock returns," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    5. Anupam Dutta & Debojyoti Das, 2022. "Forecasting realized volatility: New evidence from time‐varying jumps in VIX," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(12), pages 2165-2189, December.
    6. Dutta, Anupam & Soytas, Ugur & Das, Debojyoti & Bhattacharyya, Asit, 2022. "In search of time-varying jumps during the turmoil periods: Evidence from crude oil futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Chun-Da & Su, Ching-Hui (Joan) & Chen, Ming-Hsiang, 2022. "Understanding how ESG-focused airlines reduce the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock returns," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    2. Guellil, Mohammed Seghir & Benbouziane, Mohamed, 2018. "Volatility Linkages between Agricultural Commodity Prices, Oil Prices and Real USD Exchange Rate || Vínculos de volatilidad entre precios de productos agrícolas, precios del petróleo y tipo de cambio ," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 26(1), pages 71-83, Diciembre.
    3. Chen, Chun-Da & Chiang, Shu-Mei & Huang, Tze-Chin, 2020. "The contagion effects of volatility indices across the U.S. and Europe," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    4. Luo, Jiawen & Ji, Qiang, 2018. "High-frequency volatility connectedness between the US crude oil market and China's agricultural commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 424-438.
    5. Svec, Jiri & Katrak, Xerxis, 2017. "Forecasting volatility with interacting multiple models," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 245-252.
    6. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Volatility Forecasting," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    7. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Yang, Li, 2014. "Oil price shocks and agricultural commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 22-35.
    8. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
    9. Zhan-Ming Chen & Liyuan Wang & Xiao-Bing Zhang & Xinye Zheng, 2019. "The Co-Movement and Asymmetry between Energy and Grain Prices: Evidence from the Crude Oil and Corn Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-18, April.
    10. Lee, Ming-Chih & Chiu, Chien-Liang & Lee, Yen-Hsien, 2007. "Is twin behavior of Nikkei 225 index futures the same?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 377(1), pages 199-210.
    11. Gbadebo Oladosu & Siwa Msangi, 2013. "Biofuel-Food Market Interactions: A Review of Modeling Approaches and Findings," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-19, February.
    12. Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2014. "Dynamic spillovers among major energy and cereal commodity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 225-243.
    13. Sharon S. Yang & Jr-Wei Huang & Chuang-Chang Chang, 2016. "Detecting and modelling the jump risk of CO 2 emission allowances and their impact on the valuation of option on futures contracts," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(5), pages 749-762, May.
    14. Zhang, Chuanguo & Qu, Xuqin, 2015. "The effect of global oil price shocks on China's agricultural commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 354-364.
    15. Riza Radmehr & Shida Rastegari Henneberry, 2020. "Energy Price Policies and Food Prices: Empirical Evidence from Iran," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-15, August.
    16. Nazlioglu, Saban & Erdem, Cumhur & Soytas, Ugur, 2013. "Volatility spillover between oil and agricultural commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 658-665.
    17. Kang, Sang Hoon & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2019. "Exploring the time-frequency connectedness and network among crude oil and agriculture commodities V1," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    18. Giray GOZGOR & Baris KABLAMACI, 2014. "The linkage between oil and agricultural commodity prices in the light of the perceived global risk," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 60(7), pages 332-342.
    19. Filip, Ondrej & Janda, Karel & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Zilberman, David, 2019. "Food versus fuel: An updated and expanded evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 152-166.
    20. Liu, Yuna, 2016. "Stock exchange integration and price jump risks - The case of the OMX Nordic exchange mergers," Umeå Economic Studies 925, Umeå University, Department of Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:96:y:2019:i:c:p:37-48. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.