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Signal extraction and the propagation of business cycles

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Author Info
Kenneth Kasa

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Abstract

This paper studies a class of models developed by Townsend (1993) and Sargent (1991). These models feature dynamic signal extraction problems in which firms with heterogeneous information draw inferences from endogenously generated time series about the value of common persistent shock. Because the information firms receive is partially determined by the expectations of other firms, each firm must 'forecast the forecasts of others'. Moreover, since it is common knowledge that everyone is in the same situation, there occurs an infinite regress in expectations, in which each firm attempts to forecast the forecasts that other firms make about its own forecast, and so on. Townsend and Sargent develop methods for solving this infinite regress problem, and discuss the possibility that in these models expectations themselves become a source of business cycle propagation. This paper contributes in two ways to the work of Townsend and Sargent. ; This paper contributes in two ways to the work of Townsend and Sargent. First, it solves analytically the fixed point problem posed by the infinite regress in expectations. Having an analytical solution facilitates empirical work. Second, it assesses empirically the potential role of forecast errors as a business cycle propagation mechanism. I find that forecast errors can indeed make a quantitatively significant contribution to the propagation of business cycles.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory with number 95-14.

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Date of creation: 1995
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfap:95-14

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Keywords: Business cycles;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Epstein, Larry G & Wang, Tan, 1994. "Intertemporal Asset Pricing Under Knightian Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 283-322, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent & Thomas D. Tallarini Jr., 1997. "Robust Permanent Income and Pricing," Levine's Working Paper Archive 596, David K. Levine. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Taub, Bart, 1989. "Aggregate fluctuations as an information transmission mechanism," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 113-150, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 7-46, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Futia, Carl A, 1981. "Rational Expectations in Stationary Linear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(1), pages 171-92, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Sargent, Thomas J., 1991. "Equilibrium with signal extraction from endogenous variables," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 245-273, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M, 1995. "Output Dynamics in Real-Business-Cycle Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 492-511, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Evans, George, 1985. "Expectational Stability and the Multiple Equilibria Problem in Linear Rational Expectations Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1217-33, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Townsend, Robert M, 1983. "Forecasting the Forecasts of Others," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 546-88, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Townsend, Robert M, 1978. "Market Anticipations, Rational Expectations, and Bayesian Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 19(2), pages 481-94, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Grossman, Sanford J & Weiss, Laurence, 1982. "Heterogeneous Information and the Theory of the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 699-727, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Binder, Michael & Pesaran, M Hashem, 1998. "Decision Making in the Presence of Heterogeneous Information and Social Interactions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1027-52, November.
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  14. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1975. "An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(6), pages 1113-44, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lucia Alessi & Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2008. "A review of nonfundamentalness and identification in structural VAR models," Working Paper Series 922, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Todd B. Walker, 2005. "How Equilibrium Prices Reveal Information in Time Series Models with Disparately Informed, Competitive Traders," Finance 0509021, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Aaron Tornell, 2003. "Robust-H_infinity Forecasting and Asset Pricing Anomalies (December 2001)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 237, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Enrique Martinez-Garcia, 2007. "A monetary model of the exchange rate with informational frictions," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 02, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  5. Eran Guse, 2004. "Expectational Business Cycles," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 97, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2007. "Incomplete information and self-fulfilling prophecies," Working Papers 2007-033, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  7. Hyun Song Shin & Jeffery D. Amato, 2003. "Public and Private Information in Monetary Policy Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 38, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  8. Joseph G. Pearlman, 2005. "Central bank transparency and private information in a dynamic macroeconomic model," Working Paper Series 455, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Antulio N. Bomfim, 1999. "Do noisy data exacerbate cyclical volatility?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-50, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  10. Klaus Adam, . "Optimal Monetary Policy with Imperfect Common Knowledge," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 116, Netherlands Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Eric van Wincoop & Philippe Bacchetta, 2003. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," NBER Working Papers 9498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Laura Veldkamp, 2003. "Learning Asymmetries in Real Business Cycles," Working Papers 03-21, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Joseph G. Pearlman & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Knowing the Forecasts of Others," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 480-497, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Antulio N. Bomfim, 1999. "Measurement error in general equilibrium: the aggregate effects of noisy economic indicators," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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